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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 7 July 2010

Spacious to take the Falmouth @ 10/1

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing
Today’s Racing Selections
World Cup

Review of yesterday’s Racing
No racing selections yesterday, but there was the usual advice to follow trainers in form.

Henry Cecil who had a 40% placed strike-rate coming into yesterday (3 wins: 1 placed; from 10 runners) in the past 14-days sent out 2 runners, and had an 8/1 winner at Wolverhampton; his other entry at Pontefract being a non-runner. That makes it 4 winners from his 8 runners in the past week! Jamie Osborne came into the day also with a 40% strike-rate (3w & 3p from 15) and sent one to Wolverhampton that won at 10/1. That makes it 3 winners from 4 runners in just 6 days for him.

Today’s Racing Selections
I have been on a good run of form lately myself, with Monday’s winner being my 3rd from my last 7 selections over the past week, bringing in 9.20pts profit to a total outlay of 14pts – that’s a 65% return on investment.
At Newmarket today there are some tricky races, but I am looking at the main feature, the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes. All eyes are on the fav Lily Langtry after her win at Royal Ascot in the Coronation Stakes. The value of that win though, is debatable given the form of the 3yo fillies generally who appear much of a muchness. She is the best of the 3yo’s in this with Rainfall unlikely to stay a mile; Special Duty looking a lucky winner of both the English and French Guineas; and Music Show crying-out for 10-furlongs. That is also the same of Gile Na Greine who was considered an Oaks filly back in April. So, how good is Lily Langtry? As she was thought to be going up to 10-furlongs for the Pretty Polly at the Curragh and didn’t beat a true miler at Royal Ascot, I’d say she has to improve about 5lbs to guarantee winning this. Of the older horses, Lahaleeb will not enjoy this trip (wants 10f) nor enjoy the going (likes “give”). There is nothing between Strawberrydaiquiri and SPACIOUS on their last meeting, yet SPACIOUS is 10/1 compared to 5/1 for her short-head conqueror at levels LTO. Today’s race should be run at the pace she needs (courtesy of Gile Na Greine) and her 3rd in last year’s Falmouth won by Goldikova puts her right in the picture in this. It is nigh on impossible for me to see her finishing outside the 1st-3 and she could easily reverse the placing’s with Strawberrydaiquiri and, if Lily Langtry is not quite as good a miler as expected, she can win this. Therefore, 10/1 looks an absolute gift. I reckon she is more like a 9/2 chance (Strawberrydaiquiri @ 4/1; Lily Langtry @ 3/1; Special Duty @ 8/1). I will probably “place-lay” Special Duty.

Newmarket 3:10 SPACIOUS, 0.5pts each-way @ 10/1 (with Bet365 at ¼odds)
Newmarket 3:10 SPACIOUS, 1pts win @ 10/1 (with Bet365)
Total = 2pts staked

World Cup
What a result! Netherlands are in the final of the World Cup. I really hope those who follow this blog took the 9/1 which I advised on 21st June about The Netherlands to win the World Cup. They are not the most spectacular side, but remember, football is a team game. It is not a game played by individuals looking for personal glory. Both the Netherlands and Uruguay (who bravely fought to the last whistle) played like a team. As do Germany who, on that basis, should beat Spain and meet the Netherlands in the final. Time to lay-off the stake and savour in the potential profits.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

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