Sittin' in the mornin' sun...

In today’s blog:
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s racing
There were no selections given yesterday. However, I did suggest that those in need of a punt should look to GINGER JACK and it duly won at 11/8 (advised at 6/4).
I updated my “blog selection” spread-sheet yesterday, and since 1st May when the blog basically went full-time, I’ve posted 62 selections. Of those, 13 (21%) have won and 10 have been placed (from EW advices); in short a financial return was achieved on 37% of all selections made. That is the sort of strike-rate I aim for, although I would prefer to have more winners. I’ve reduced the number of selections recently, as I am trying to avoid making speculative selections just to post on the blog. Hopefully, that will transfer into a greater percentage of winners and ultimately more profit. From 118pts staked, a profit of only 8.67pts has been generated (7.34% ROI, return on investment). This does not include profits from suggestions in the blog like Ginger Jack (won), Sans Frontieres (won @ 14/1), Special Duty (place-lay profit) and so on.

Today’s Racing Selections
Another day of very ordinary racing.
With racing in the lower classes (4, 5 and 6) the horses are less consistent in performance and form-lines are trickier to read. As such, you have to rely on whether or not the trainer knows if his horse is ready to do the business and, as he will pass on that information to the owners so they can have a wager, await any market moves. I do not wager in accordance with market moves. I know there are people who do, thinking that if the odds on a runner drop from 8/1 to 5/1 then there must be a valid reason, but if that move has merely taken the horse from the 4th in the market to be 3rd in the market behind a 9/4 fav and 7/2 2nd fav, then it still has only a 17% chance of winning at 5/1 compared to a 11% chance at 8/1.

There is an interesting Class 3 handicap at Lingfield on the AW at 4:30 over a mile. Top-weight is an old “friend” of mine Benandonner, who I have followed since he was a 3yo. This horse is a good galloper but has no change of pace at the finish, hence stats of 3 wins and 8 x 2nds in 37 runs. He will ensure a decent pace, as will Den’s Gift who also likes to make the running. Bintalwaadi, who gets the 3yo weight-for-age allowance, also won over C&D on 20-Apr and the horse he beat that day (Fireback) is now rated OR91, which suggests that Bintalwaadi could potentially be OR98 (runs off OR89 today). As such, he is the 6/4 fav, but he is another who likes to set the pace, and these 3 could set-up the race for a finisher from off the pace, and one that jumps out is DOCOFTHEBAY. His latest 2 runs have been poor, but he was drawn on the wrong side LTO in the Hunt Cup. However, on 13-May he was 5th, beaten just over 3-lengths in a Listed h’cap at York off OR94. He’s dropped to OR89 today (and he was 2nd in the Hunt Cup in 2008 off OR103). This is a big drop in class for DOCOFTHEBAY and if he’s in the mood he’ll eat these for breakfast. Current odds of 10/1 look fair as he’s the sort who will either win or run unplaced.

Selection:
Lingfield 4:30 DOCOFTHEBAY, ½pt each-way
Lingfield 4:30 DOCOFTHEBAY, 1pt win
Total 2pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad