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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Tuesday 20 July 2010

Guilded Warrior from the front

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of yesterday’s racing
What a cracking filly FAVOURITE GIRL is! It wasn’t till after the result was known that I realised that Ayr is a stiff track and the 5-furlong track probably favours a horse that stays a proper 6-furlongs. She certainly wasn’t stopping and is as genuine as they come. Runner-up Pavershooz very nearly repeated his win in the same race last season and, as he won 3 from 4 starts in the height of the summer last year, he may be worth following in the coming few weeks as this was his first run since 15th May (9 weeks ago). I thought FAVOURITE GIRL’s trainer TD Easterby, would try and repeat the tactic (6-furlong horse over a stiff 5-furlong track) with Ryedane at Beverley in the evening, and it very nearly came off as Ryedane failed by only a short-head @ 5/1. It would be an interesting exercise to assess how many winners on tracks with a stiff 5-furlong track are horses that are usually campaigned over 6-furlongs. The winner of the Beverley race - Caranbola – had a poor 3yo campaign, dropping from OR88 to OR62 (26lbs). She was highly tried as a 2yo, coincidentally finishing 5th in the 2yo Trophy at Redcar (over 6-furlongs) about 2½ lengths behind FAVOURITE GIRL. The winner of that race - Total Gallery – went on to win the Prix De L’Abbaye, and whereas Caranbola is not in that class, she has the potential to reach OR80+ again now she has regained the winning thread, just as FAVOURITE GIRL has.

Today’s Racing Selections
Barney Curley is a name that puts fear into bookmakers, and he struck last Friday evening in the last race on the card at Newmarket by winning with his only runner of the day - AVISO. Think about this; Aviso, which won off OR67 at 25/1, had won the Group 2 German 2000 Guineas as a 3yo with the Mark Johnston trained Champery in 3rd. Champery then won a Listed race in France NTO and ended up with a rating of OR107 before he died as a 4yo. How does an OR110+ Group 2 winner at a mile end up at OR67 in a Class 5 handicap at Newmarket over the same trip? Well, it doesn’t happen by it running well. It has to run, and run poorly for its handicap to drop. Read this note on its running; “Took keen hold, soon tracking leaders, lost place over 1f out, eased.” That was Aviso on 29-Mar 2009 when trained by Curley, and it came 17th of 19 in a class 4 handicap. Aviso has now won 2 of his last 3 races at odds of 6/1 and 25/1; I expect he will win a few more as he gets fitter.
Anyway, he has another out today at Kempton in the opening race – SAVARONOLA. How this horse was allowed to start its last flat race on the AW at Wolverhampton off OR55 when as a 3yo it was beaten just 2-lengths when trying to give Cassique Lady (who went on to win the Warwick Oaks and was rated OR102) 5lb! Lord, give me strength – do the handicappers read the form book? Of course, it won last-time-out @ 11/10 “comfortably.” It will probably do the same today if the Curley money is down.

There is a good Class 3 handicap over a mile at Ffos Las at 4:00. What is intriguing is Huzzah, who looked like he was almost back to his best LTO, and was fav for a race on 23-June and subject of a major market move, but was withdrawn. Guilded Warrior will no doubt try and make all at a blistering gallop – but that will suit Huzzah, but at just 100/30 I'm not tempted. For me, Secretive is now exposed and no longer progressing. Innocuous was hampered last time in what has turned-out to be a very decent race and he could step-up a lot on that form, but his dam has not produced a true “miler” and his sire Zafeen (by Zafonic) does not suggest that a mile will be his best trip. Swift Chap has slipped to a very attractive mark, but his trainer Bruce Millman is out of form. At 15/2 (8.60) generally, GUILDED WARRIOR looks a decent “back-to-lay” proposition as he should lead to inside the furlong pole at which point he’ll be <3.05 on the exchanges and a trade-out should be available; but with lots of question-marks over the others then I’d have a ½pt each-way as he’s currently 17/2 on Sportingodds.

Ffos Las 4:00 GUILDED WARRIOR, ½pt each-way @ 17/2 (with sportingodds)
Total = 1pt staked

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
CESIUM, 5yo 2nd season chaser trained by Tom GEORGE

CESIUM first came to my attention when he beat Rince Donn just before Christmas on 21st December at Ffos Las. It was the start of a good run of form for Rince Donn who won his next race and was unlucky not to win another, and ended the season on OR94, 8lbs higher than the day he met CESIUM. In that race on 21st Dec, CESIUM was in total command until crashing through the last fence after which he had to battle-back to win on the line. He flopped next time in what was a fast-run race (speed-rating of winner 116) and he quickly got tailed-off with trainer Tome George saying that he lost interest. Ridden more prominently on 17-Feb, he easily won a class 4 chase off OR96. He was beaten by the heavy going at Leicester on 02-Mar (all his decent form has been on Good-to-Soft or better going) and he bounced back to easily win another Class 4 chase at Bangor on 27-Mar with Prince Des Marais (OR100) 5-lengths back. That one went on to win his next 2 chases and is now rated OR123. In 3rd that day was Glimmer Of Light (OR81) and he’s also won 2 races since and is now rated OR98. Next up was a very competitive class 3 novice chase which was won by the progressive Midnight Chase (OR125) who has also won again since and is now rated OR137. In 2nd was Sound Stage (OR125) who has also been both consistent and progressive as a novice and went up 3lbs for this. That was the 8th race of the season for CESIUM and it probably was a visit to the trough too many. I would expect him to continue to improve, especially as his half-brother Cerium won a Class 1 (Grade 2) handicap chase at Ascot over 2m3f off OR144 for which he was raised 10lbs by the handicapper. CESIUM will be best over 2½ miles or thereabouts on good-to-soft or better, and his canny trainer will no doubt place him to advantage off his current mark of OR113. This looks very lenient as if he re-opposes Glimmer Of Light he’ll be on 9lb better terms despite having given him an 11-length beating last time they met. I would expect him to end the season on a mark of OR130+.

Already on the list:
ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 6yo 2nd season chaser trained by Chris GORDON

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  1. GUILDED WARRIOR now out to 12/1 with Sportingodds with 1/4 odds ew 1st-2. Innocuous looks too short @ 2/1 with ability still unproven and doubts over staying this trip; Secretive being one-paced makes no appeal @ 5/2. Take the 12/1 on GUILDED WARRIOR.

  2. Love your bit about Barney Curley... the only trouble with him having 'money down' is figuring out if its on his own runner or one of the oppositions!
    Racing needs characters like these and I think most people know to tread carefully when backing or taking on the Curleys of the racing world. Nice work Ian. Good stuff!