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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 8 July 2010

Hit the Crossbar! Spacious 2nd @ 10/1

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s Racing
Hit the crossbar yesterday with SPACIOUS coming-in 2nd @ 9/1 (advised at 10/1). That cost us a ½pt loss, but the winner came from “left-field” and all the expected dangers were well beaten. What I was spot-on with was Special Duty who was exposed by the strong pace of the race and, as expected, did not justify the market support and was an exceptional “place-lay” at 1.80 on the exchanges prior to the off. BTW, Music Show, which beat Spacious is – in my opinion – the best 3yo filly we’ve seen this season by far. There were a few trainers-in-form who had single runners out; notably TD Easterby who followed-up on his 2 winners from 4 runners on Tuesday with another winner from his only runner yesterday – and it won at 7/1 as well.

Today’s Racing Selections
Some good racing today, with 2nd day of the July Meeting at Newmarket this afternoon. Give the afternoon meeting at Folkstone a miss, but there is some interest at Warwick where the 2:55 is a competitive affair. Paul D’Arcy and TD Barron have their only runners of the day in this, and trainers in hot-form TD Easterby and Mark Johnston also have runners. At Newmarket in the opening race we may have the answer to the old question “weight can slow a horse down, but can lack of weight make it run quicker?” Last time they met Corsica gave 18lb to Harris Tweed and was beaten 5-lengths; today they meet on level-weights so Corsica should win. But will the weight turnaround make the difference? The 2:35 3yo handicap over 10f looks extremely competitive and a race I will not try and solve.
The Group 2 at 3:10 looks to hold a decent value wager in HOLBERG at current odds of 100/30. The form of his latest run when winning at Goodwood on 4th June has been franked by the placed horses, and the fav Spanish Moon is a horse that prefers a bit of “give” in the going. The Noseda horse Sans Frontieres, which is his only runner today, is also interesting as he was a very well-thought-of 3yo who ran in the Dante at York after coming 2nd to Delegator in the Craven. He could well make the frame at long odds.
This evening at Doncaster, Henry Cecil sends up AEGEAN SHADOW for the 7:45 but current best-odds of just 7/4 are far too skinny for a half-brother to 6-furlong sprinter Corporal Maddox that is trying a mile for the first time.
At Epsom, in the 7:55 HEAR THE ROAR benefits from the 3yo weight allowance and this unexposed horse can win on his local track, looking value at 3/1. In the final race on the card at 9:00, Peter Makin’s HAND PAINTED can improve on his last run which came after a 283-day break. That form looks good as the winner has won again since. HAND PAINTED is best at 6f on good-to-firm and should handle Epsom having won twice at Brighton.

Newmarket 3:10 HOLBERG, 2pts win @ 3/1
Epsom 7:55 HEAR THE ROAR, 1pts win @ 100/30
Epsom 9:00 HAND PAINTED, 0.50pts EW @ 6/1 (with Ladbrokes)
Total = 4pts staked

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Thanks from Wayward Lad


  1. Well, I was right about SANS FRONTIERES making the frame at long-odds; only the horse went on to win the race! Since 1st July (8-days) Noseda has had 4 winners & 3 placed from just 8 runners!

  2. There's been plenty of early money for HEAR THE ROAR and if you didn't get on at 100/30 earlier then the value has gone as he's 2/1. With the odds going 9/2 the rest its time to look for an each-way "thief".