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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Wednesday 21 July 2010

Rain, rain, go away!

In today’s blog:
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of yesterday’s racing
Torrential rain at Ffos Las made the chance of blog selection GUILDED WARRIOR very tenuous as tho’ he’s won on soft going, he only just gets the mile and the writing was on the wall when he lost the lead about 300 yards out. Even so, as highlighted yesterday, he was a decent “back-to-lay” proposition going below 4.00 in-running having been 12.0+ in the betting before the race. So, a point lost to the blog (even tho’ I managed to lay-off my stake for no loss).
Barney Curley’s SAVARONOLA drifted in the betting indicating that he was keeping his money in his wallet and the horse ran unplaced. I reckon this horse’s real rating is about OR85, so off its current mark of OR68 another winning opportunity will come along soon.

Today’s Racing Selections
Another blog that I follow – Sprinterstogo – has highlighted the remarkable strike-rate of jockey Adrian Nicholls on non-handicaps. Over this season and the previous two, he’s won 41 from 564 (7.26%) handicaps; but in non-handicaps he’s won 68 from 313 (21.72%). If that is narrowed down to just “sellers & claimers”, his stats are 47 wins in 143 races (32.86%) with his average winning SP being 9/4. That is over 3 flat seasons, so these stats are no flash in the pan! He rides in a claimer this afternoon at Catterick; Galpin Junior in the 4:40 who ran his best race since his 2yo season LTO.

At Sandown this evening there are some decent races and Class 3, 3yo handicap at 7:40 over 7-furlongs looks to have some value. I was initially drawn to Henry Candy’s only runner today The Confessor in this as Candy has a 32% strike-rate with 3yo’s at Sandown (6 from 19) but the form of The Confessor’s win LTO has been let down and he may be a bit high on OR77 (he’s also entered for a Class 4 later in the week). The standout for me is ERTIKAAN who won well LTO and was a good 3rd on 30th May over 7f. He did not stay the mile between those runs, and OR82 looks lenient for him. Currently at 7/2, he’s the one to beat. I will watch the weather and, if no heavy rain, will decide whether to make ERTIKAAN a selection at 5pm this afternoon.

Other trainers in-form with single runners today are:-
Ralph Beckett: CIRCUS GIRL in the 8:15 at Sandown
D O’Meara: DROP THE HAMMER in the 5:10 at Catterick
Roger Charlton: TRULY ASIA in the 8:15 at Sandown
James Fanshawe: INCENDO in the 9:00 at Leicester

Lastly, Epsom trainer Pat Phelan runs Dani’s Girl at Sandown and it looks like he’s getting the horse fit for a return to hurdling. It won a Listed h’cap on 31-Oct at Ascot last year and his rating of OR122 looks mighty tempting as those behind him that day - Pascha Bere and Michael Flips – are 8lb & 10lb higher now.

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
EBADIYAN, 5yo hurdler trained by Patrick O’BRADY

Most will remember EBADIYAN for running-out when leading the Triumph hurdle won by Zaynar in 2009. His trainer thought he would have won that day, and his subsequent form suggests that he may have gone close. On his return in the autumn of 2009, he was suffering from a virus and it came to a head when he pulled-up at Leopardstown in the Christmas Hurdle, so those autumn races are best forgotten. Anyhow, he put that all behind him with a win when beating that consistent yardstick, Muirhead in January on heavy going; and Pat O’Brady thought the horse was not ready for that race! After that, connections were unsure whether to go for the Champion Hurdle or the Coral Cup; they went for neither, instead opting to take on Big Bucks in the World Hurdle. There he ran an absolute cracker. Always with the leaders, he was outpaced at the top of the hill but battled-on from thereon, jumping the last in 3rd he only gave up the place in the final strides to seasoned campaigners Karabak (OR167) and Powerstation (OR150). That was his first (completed) attempt at 3-mile and its possible his rider tried to conserve energy running up the hill on the 2nd-circuit. No doubt about it, he gets the 3-mile trip and being only 5yo there must be plenty of improvement in him as he matures. He’s the same age as Peddlers Cross and is on the same rating OR150, but whereas Peddlers Cross has a high profile and is 10/1 for the World Hurdle, he’s snuck under the radar! He’s a live World Hurdle contender at the ripe odds of 50/1, and he’s the type to run-up a sequence of wins in graded hurdles this autumn over 20f+ in Ireland.

Already on the list:
CESIUM, 5yo 2nd season chaser trained by Tom GEORGE
ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 6yo 2nd season chaser trained by Chris GORDON

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

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