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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 22 July 2010

No value tonight

Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Today’s Racing Selections
Much as I look, I cannot find a solid selection for today.
The worst thing you can do is find a wager on a day when there isn’t one; better off keeping the money in your pocket for another day.

There are some interesting trainers’ in-form with single runners today:-
Henry Cecil sends WHIRLY DANCER for the 7:25 at Doncaster, but it has to come back from a dire run LTO and before that it looked in the handicappers grasp having been raised 10lb for winning a class 5 maiden at Folkstone – the price paid for being a filly in the Cecil stable!
James Fanshawe with 4 winners from just 6 runners in the past week sends just OLD HUNDRED for the final race at Doncaster at 9:00. Already at 2/1, the value has gone.

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
PALYPSO DE CREEK, 7yo chaser trained by Charlie LONGSDON
This horse has had a bold introduction to the UK racing scene having raced in France until April 2009. Bought specifically for a bid at the Grand National, his UK debut in October over hurdles at Towcester over 3-mile resulted in a convincing win. Behind him that day in 2nd was Lord Generous, who had a great season and ended up rated OR135, which suggests that the current OR130 hurdle rating for PALYPSO DE CREEK is ripe for exploitation. Next was a UK chasing debut at Aintree in the Becher Handicap Chase over 26-furlongs and, with him appreciating the soft going, it looks like he was beaten by the trip as he faded on the run-in. Given a 2-month break, his next run was a tremendous effort off OR136 when 2nd to Our Vic at Haydock in the 3-mile Peter Marsh Chase (grade 2) on heavy going. As Our Vic is virtually unbeatable on soft or worse going (7 wins & 2 x 2nds from 11 runs on soft or heavy), that was a great performance. His run at the Festival was just a warm-up for the National attempt but, even so, his run was much more promising that that described by the RP commentary (“never travelling”) as he made significant progress on the 2nd-circuit (he was carrying my money, so I had an interest in his progress) until it was clear he’d not catch the front 3, at which point he was eased. As he failed to stay 3m 2f at Aintree in November, he was hardly likely to stay the 4m 856yards of the National trip, and he duly fell when tiring 4-out. He’s on OR136 for the coming season, and he could potentially be OR145+ over 3-mile on soft/heavy. He must be on the shortlist for the major chase handicaps this season over 3-mile, and a “pipe-opener” over the hurdles could fill the wallet. Given the awful record of 7yo’s in the National, another year-or-two under his belt could see a bold bid for National glory from PALYPSO DE CREEK in 2011 or 2012.

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1 comment:

  1. WHIRLY DANCER wins @ 5/1 - sometimes you gotta have faith!