Going off with a bang!

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of yesterday’s racing
No selections for the blog yesterday, but the 2nd-string came-up trumps with a win for WHIRLY DANCER mentioned on the blog as the only runner of the day for in-form trainer Henry Cecil (went into yesterday with 4 wins and 3 placed from 16 runners – 43.8% strikerate – in past 14-days) and it won at 5/1. The only other horse mentioned was OLD HUNDRED, the only runner of the day for in-form trainer James Fanshawe (went into yesterday with 4 wins and 2 placed from 11 runners – 54.5% – in past 14-days) and that was 2nd at 11/4.
We mentioned the strike rate of Adrian Nicholls in “sellers & claimers” (48 wins in 144 races - 33.33%), and he only had a single booked ride for yesterday; Amenable in the 7:55 at Doncaster – it won at 5/1.
Mark Johnston had 3 winners from 4 runners yesterday, making it 5 wins from 8 in the past 2-days; his stable is in red-hot form and every runner must be considered – he has 11 running for him today. Richard Hannon had 4 winners from 8 runners, making it 6 wins from his last 17 runners over the past 4-days. He’s got 14 declared for today!

Today’s Racing Selections
There are 5 meetings on the flat today (and a jumps meeting at Southwell) and it looks a great day for racing to start one of the season’s top weekends. This is probably my last blog for a week as I’m off to Cornwall with the family (I should be back on Monday 2nd August); I hope to sign-off with a winner but I cannot promise anything.
With so many meetings, there are not many in-form trainers with just a single runner but David Elsworth is one, with SNOQUALMIE STAR in the 5:40 at Newmarket. Half-sister Snoqualmie Girl is currently rated OR101, so “Star” running off OR71 suggests there’s plenty of latent ability, but today’s 10f trip is a first, so I would not take less than 3/1 about her. Also at Newmarket, in the 8:45 is Roger Charlton’s only runner today YABTREE. This one won over C&D on 18-Jun and if he repeats that form he will be right there at the finish, so odds of 7/1 look very generous.
At York and there is a ‘listed’ race at 7:30 and Suroor / Dettori combine for their only runner at tonights meeting (Dettori travelling up from Ascot in the afternoon). COPPERBEECH looks out of it on official ratings, but last time she met the fav Les Fazzani she finished in front of her and she meets her today on only 1lb worse terms. It’s hard to see COPPERBEECH winning, but I can’t see her being beaten by anything other than the fav and at 13/2 she represents value.
Sir Mark Prescott sends just 2 runners out today, both at Thirsk; a 2yo and the 3yo maiden FORK LIGHTNING for the 3:10. This one is a half-sister to Aussie Rules a Group 1 winner for Aiden O’Brien in France; and Approach who won a listed race for Sir Mark Prescott. This 7f race may be a bit short for FORK LIGHTNING but she should be on the scene at the finish. Personally, I fancy the chance of RAQUEEB in this race having his first run for Mrs Carr since leaving Sir Michael Stoute as his form bears scrutiny and he could be on a very good mark of OR79 as both those that beat him in recent runs have won again since and both gone up 9lb.

Selection:
Newmarket 8:45, YABTREE 1pt each-way @ 7/1 (with Stan James; ¼ odds a place & best-odds guaranteed)

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
QHILIMAR, 6yo chaser trained by A E JONES
A French import for the start of the 2009-10 season. Never raced beyond 2m 5f in France, but he was tried over 3-mile on his debut at Exeter on 03-Nov in which he ran well, and then came out quickly the following week at Cheltenham over 3m 1f. He ran travelled very strongly until his stamina gave-up about half a mile out at the 3-last fence where he made a bad error (he fell at the next fence). Even so, he showed he was much better than his OR112 rating as the winner Razor Royale ran 2nd in the Boylesports next time and later won the Grade 3 Racing Post Chase and is now 17lb higher on OR146. QHILIMAR was then dropped in trip to 2m 3f at Chepstow where he raced on heavy going. Although he had form in France on heavy going, I don’t think he liked it as he was under hard driving to keep going for much of the race before staying-on at after the final fence. A return to Cheltenham a week later, and better going (soft) plus up in trip to 2m 5f saw an upturn in form. Unfortunately, he met the very progressive Sound Stage but, even so, ran a good race. He does tend to switch-off mid-race and require heavy driving to get going again, but then stays on very well. He did it in both these races and I expect his “in-running” price took a walk when the whip was shown. Sound Stage is now 23lb higher on OR128. Given a 7-week break, he returned for a 2m 6f chase on soft (Class 3) and looked a transformed horse. He never needed to be shown the whip, cruised into contention, and stayed on strongest of all, the result was never in doubt. Another 2-month break followed, and a return to Newbury for a class 2 chase over 3m 2½f, but this was too far for the 6yo. His raw ability kept him in contention over the final 5 fences, but he was a spent force at the 2nd-last. For me, his limit is 3m 1f. His final run over the National fences at Aintree can be ignored as he didn’t enjoy the experience.
He resumes the new season on OR126, and he should end it on OR135+ at the very least, more likely OR140+. So long as he’s not run at trips shorter than 2m 6f or on heavy going, he should pay his way.

Already on the list:
CESIUM, 5yo 2nd season chaser trained by Tom GEORGE
ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 6yo 2nd season chaser trained by Chris GORDON
EBADIYAN, 5yo hurdler trained by Patrick O’BRADY
PALYPSO DE CREEK, 7yo chaser trained by Charlie LONGSDON

See you all back here on Monday 2nd August.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

No value tonight

Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Today’s Racing Selections
Much as I look, I cannot find a solid selection for today.
The worst thing you can do is find a wager on a day when there isn’t one; better off keeping the money in your pocket for another day.

There are some interesting trainers’ in-form with single runners today:-
Henry Cecil sends WHIRLY DANCER for the 7:25 at Doncaster, but it has to come back from a dire run LTO and before that it looked in the handicappers grasp having been raised 10lb for winning a class 5 maiden at Folkstone – the price paid for being a filly in the Cecil stable!
James Fanshawe with 4 winners from just 6 runners in the past week sends just OLD HUNDRED for the final race at Doncaster at 9:00. Already at 2/1, the value has gone.

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
PALYPSO DE CREEK, 7yo chaser trained by Charlie LONGSDON
This horse has had a bold introduction to the UK racing scene having raced in France until April 2009. Bought specifically for a bid at the Grand National, his UK debut in October over hurdles at Towcester over 3-mile resulted in a convincing win. Behind him that day in 2nd was Lord Generous, who had a great season and ended up rated OR135, which suggests that the current OR130 hurdle rating for PALYPSO DE CREEK is ripe for exploitation. Next was a UK chasing debut at Aintree in the Becher Handicap Chase over 26-furlongs and, with him appreciating the soft going, it looks like he was beaten by the trip as he faded on the run-in. Given a 2-month break, his next run was a tremendous effort off OR136 when 2nd to Our Vic at Haydock in the 3-mile Peter Marsh Chase (grade 2) on heavy going. As Our Vic is virtually unbeatable on soft or worse going (7 wins & 2 x 2nds from 11 runs on soft or heavy), that was a great performance. His run at the Festival was just a warm-up for the National attempt but, even so, his run was much more promising that that described by the RP commentary (“never travelling”) as he made significant progress on the 2nd-circuit (he was carrying my money, so I had an interest in his progress) until it was clear he’d not catch the front 3, at which point he was eased. As he failed to stay 3m 2f at Aintree in November, he was hardly likely to stay the 4m 856yards of the National trip, and he duly fell when tiring 4-out. He’s on OR136 for the coming season, and he could potentially be OR145+ over 3-mile on soft/heavy. He must be on the shortlist for the major chase handicaps this season over 3-mile, and a “pipe-opener” over the hurdles could fill the wallet. Given the awful record of 7yo’s in the National, another year-or-two under his belt could see a bold bid for National glory from PALYPSO DE CREEK in 2011 or 2012.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Hold all bets - heavy rain!

In today’s blog:
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of yesterday’s racing
The blog selection ERTIKAAN was beaten by the draw yesterday in failing to get the rail. Despite a game display, he could not pass the eventual winner who hugged the rail and made all. Sandown is a difficult place to pass a strong front-runner as there is a camber to the track that can make a horse, that is trying to overtake, unbalanced. I was particularly disappointed as the SP on ERTIKAAN was 6/1. On Betfair, the odds drifted to 8.0+ (7/1) and I increased my stake from 2pts to 5pts to take advantage, averaging odds of 7.00. I laid-off in-running 3pts @ 4.0 and 2pts @ 3.05, so had ERTIKAAN won I stood to win 16.90pts less commission. It was not to be and so, another 2pts lost to the blog. What is good about the exchanges is they allow bets to be laid-off to secure a “no-loss” situation. Of course, that is at reduced profit, but if you don’t lose then you can only win.

I did not report yesterday the brilliant news that both CANFORD CLIFFS and DICK TURPIN are to stay in training as 4yo’s. Jumps’ racing has undergone a renaissance in recent years and its popularity is in no small part due to the affection the racing public has for the horses that can grace the jumps racing scene for as much as 8 years, and you can relate to them. The Flat racing authorities have to try and create the same sort of affection for that sphere too. We need good horses to stay in training as 4yo’s, 5yo’ and longer if possible. Hats off to connections for this brave decision – more please.

The “2nd-string” selections came up with some good winners even if the blog selection failed. The stat about jockey Adrian Nicholls in “sellers & claimers” came good! He won in the claimer at Catterick on GALPIN JUNIOR @ 11/4. That now makes his stats in similar races 48 wins in 144 races (33.33%). Well done to ‘The Laird’ who writes the blog “Sprinterstogo” for spotting that one.
And from the trainers-in-form, James Fanshawe’s only runner INCENDO won @ 5/2 (by 5-lengths!)

Today’s Racing Selections
This afternoon’s meeting at Bath looks dire, and is best avoided. There is an attractive meeting at Sandown, but there's only one race that takes my eye, and that’s the 3:55 a Class 3 handicap over 10f. This race looks a weak affair and therefore the Mark Johnston runner Yourgunnubelucky has strong claims and looks a solid fav. Given the weakness of the opposition, he looks the most solid option and 11/2 looks generous (¼ odds the place, and Hills also go best odds guaranteed).

The most interesting racing takes places this evening tho’, and with heavy race forecast – I’m in Aldershot and it’s chucking it down as I write, and the sky is dark with heavy raincloud – it may be best to watch the weather and return at 5pm for a look at the evening racing.

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
I will post up the next horse for the alert list with the evening blog at 5pm.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Ertikaan the value

The rain looks like its staying away from Sandown, and the going remains Good-to-Firm. There's been a market move for Andrew Baldings' Kakatosi in the 7:40 since the withdrawal of Henry Candy's runner (The Confessor). Can't understand it myself as Kakatosi only just won LTO and has been raised 6lb by the handicapper for this. Ditto, the Johnston horse Sailorman, who was 2nd off OR82 LTO and now runs off OR85. Neither of those trainers has a spectacular strike-rate; but that's not the case with Mick Jarvis who has a 23% strike-rate with 3yo's here.
With ERTIKAAN now 4/1 he is easily the value punt as he looks like he's still improving.

Selection:
Sandown 7:40 ERTIKAAN, 2pts win @ 4/1 (available generally, but best odds guaranteed with Vic Chandler)

Rain, rain, go away!

In today’s blog:
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of yesterday’s racing
Torrential rain at Ffos Las made the chance of blog selection GUILDED WARRIOR very tenuous as tho’ he’s won on soft going, he only just gets the mile and the writing was on the wall when he lost the lead about 300 yards out. Even so, as highlighted yesterday, he was a decent “back-to-lay” proposition going below 4.00 in-running having been 12.0+ in the betting before the race. So, a point lost to the blog (even tho’ I managed to lay-off my stake for no loss).
Barney Curley’s SAVARONOLA drifted in the betting indicating that he was keeping his money in his wallet and the horse ran unplaced. I reckon this horse’s real rating is about OR85, so off its current mark of OR68 another winning opportunity will come along soon.

Today’s Racing Selections
Another blog that I follow – Sprinterstogo – has highlighted the remarkable strike-rate of jockey Adrian Nicholls on non-handicaps. Over this season and the previous two, he’s won 41 from 564 (7.26%) handicaps; but in non-handicaps he’s won 68 from 313 (21.72%). If that is narrowed down to just “sellers & claimers”, his stats are 47 wins in 143 races (32.86%) with his average winning SP being 9/4. That is over 3 flat seasons, so these stats are no flash in the pan! He rides in a claimer this afternoon at Catterick; Galpin Junior in the 4:40 who ran his best race since his 2yo season LTO.

At Sandown this evening there are some decent races and Class 3, 3yo handicap at 7:40 over 7-furlongs looks to have some value. I was initially drawn to Henry Candy’s only runner today The Confessor in this as Candy has a 32% strike-rate with 3yo’s at Sandown (6 from 19) but the form of The Confessor’s win LTO has been let down and he may be a bit high on OR77 (he’s also entered for a Class 4 later in the week). The standout for me is ERTIKAAN who won well LTO and was a good 3rd on 30th May over 7f. He did not stay the mile between those runs, and OR82 looks lenient for him. Currently at 7/2, he’s the one to beat. I will watch the weather and, if no heavy rain, will decide whether to make ERTIKAAN a selection at 5pm this afternoon.

Other trainers in-form with single runners today are:-
Ralph Beckett: CIRCUS GIRL in the 8:15 at Sandown
D O’Meara: DROP THE HAMMER in the 5:10 at Catterick
Roger Charlton: TRULY ASIA in the 8:15 at Sandown
James Fanshawe: INCENDO in the 9:00 at Leicester

Lastly, Epsom trainer Pat Phelan runs Dani’s Girl at Sandown and it looks like he’s getting the horse fit for a return to hurdling. It won a Listed h’cap on 31-Oct at Ascot last year and his rating of OR122 looks mighty tempting as those behind him that day - Pascha Bere and Michael Flips – are 8lb & 10lb higher now.

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
EBADIYAN, 5yo hurdler trained by Patrick O’BRADY
Most will remember EBADIYAN for running-out when leading the Triumph hurdle won by Zaynar in 2009. His trainer thought he would have won that day, and his subsequent form suggests that he may have gone close. On his return in the autumn of 2009, he was suffering from a virus and it came to a head when he pulled-up at Leopardstown in the Christmas Hurdle, so those autumn races are best forgotten. Anyhow, he put that all behind him with a win when beating that consistent yardstick, Muirhead in January on heavy going; and Pat O’Brady thought the horse was not ready for that race! After that, connections were unsure whether to go for the Champion Hurdle or the Coral Cup; they went for neither, instead opting to take on Big Bucks in the World Hurdle. There he ran an absolute cracker. Always with the leaders, he was outpaced at the top of the hill but battled-on from thereon, jumping the last in 3rd he only gave up the place in the final strides to seasoned campaigners Karabak (OR167) and Powerstation (OR150). That was his first (completed) attempt at 3-mile and its possible his rider tried to conserve energy running up the hill on the 2nd-circuit. No doubt about it, he gets the 3-mile trip and being only 5yo there must be plenty of improvement in him as he matures. He’s the same age as Peddlers Cross and is on the same rating OR150, but whereas Peddlers Cross has a high profile and is 10/1 for the World Hurdle, he’s snuck under the radar! He’s a live World Hurdle contender at the ripe odds of 50/1, and he’s the type to run-up a sequence of wins in graded hurdles this autumn over 20f+ in Ireland.

Already on the list:
CESIUM, 5yo 2nd season chaser trained by Tom GEORGE
ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 6yo 2nd season chaser trained by Chris GORDON

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Guilded Warrior from the front

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections
2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List

Review of yesterday’s racing
What a cracking filly FAVOURITE GIRL is! It wasn’t till after the result was known that I realised that Ayr is a stiff track and the 5-furlong track probably favours a horse that stays a proper 6-furlongs. She certainly wasn’t stopping and is as genuine as they come. Runner-up Pavershooz very nearly repeated his win in the same race last season and, as he won 3 from 4 starts in the height of the summer last year, he may be worth following in the coming few weeks as this was his first run since 15th May (9 weeks ago). I thought FAVOURITE GIRL’s trainer TD Easterby, would try and repeat the tactic (6-furlong horse over a stiff 5-furlong track) with Ryedane at Beverley in the evening, and it very nearly came off as Ryedane failed by only a short-head @ 5/1. It would be an interesting exercise to assess how many winners on tracks with a stiff 5-furlong track are horses that are usually campaigned over 6-furlongs. The winner of the Beverley race - Caranbola – had a poor 3yo campaign, dropping from OR88 to OR62 (26lbs). She was highly tried as a 2yo, coincidentally finishing 5th in the 2yo Trophy at Redcar (over 6-furlongs) about 2½ lengths behind FAVOURITE GIRL. The winner of that race - Total Gallery – went on to win the Prix De L’Abbaye, and whereas Caranbola is not in that class, she has the potential to reach OR80+ again now she has regained the winning thread, just as FAVOURITE GIRL has.

Today’s Racing Selections
Barney Curley is a name that puts fear into bookmakers, and he struck last Friday evening in the last race on the card at Newmarket by winning with his only runner of the day - AVISO. Think about this; Aviso, which won off OR67 at 25/1, had won the Group 2 German 2000 Guineas as a 3yo with the Mark Johnston trained Champery in 3rd. Champery then won a Listed race in France NTO and ended up with a rating of OR107 before he died as a 4yo. How does an OR110+ Group 2 winner at a mile end up at OR67 in a Class 5 handicap at Newmarket over the same trip? Well, it doesn’t happen by it running well. It has to run, and run poorly for its handicap to drop. Read this note on its running; “Took keen hold, soon tracking leaders, lost place over 1f out, eased.” That was Aviso on 29-Mar 2009 when trained by Curley, and it came 17th of 19 in a class 4 handicap. Aviso has now won 2 of his last 3 races at odds of 6/1 and 25/1; I expect he will win a few more as he gets fitter.
Anyway, he has another out today at Kempton in the opening race – SAVARONOLA. How this horse was allowed to start its last flat race on the AW at Wolverhampton off OR55 when as a 3yo it was beaten just 2-lengths when trying to give Cassique Lady (who went on to win the Warwick Oaks and was rated OR102) 5lb! Lord, give me strength – do the handicappers read the form book? Of course, it won last-time-out @ 11/10 “comfortably.” It will probably do the same today if the Curley money is down.

There is a good Class 3 handicap over a mile at Ffos Las at 4:00. What is intriguing is Huzzah, who looked like he was almost back to his best LTO, and was fav for a race on 23-June and subject of a major market move, but was withdrawn. Guilded Warrior will no doubt try and make all at a blistering gallop – but that will suit Huzzah, but at just 100/30 I'm not tempted. For me, Secretive is now exposed and no longer progressing. Innocuous was hampered last time in what has turned-out to be a very decent race and he could step-up a lot on that form, but his dam has not produced a true “miler” and his sire Zafeen (by Zafonic) does not suggest that a mile will be his best trip. Swift Chap has slipped to a very attractive mark, but his trainer Bruce Millman is out of form. At 15/2 (8.60) generally, GUILDED WARRIOR looks a decent “back-to-lay” proposition as he should lead to inside the furlong pole at which point he’ll be <3.05 on the exchanges and a trade-out should be available; but with lots of question-marks over the others then I’d have a ½pt each-way as he’s currently 17/2 on Sportingodds.

Selection:
Ffos Las 4:00 GUILDED WARRIOR, ½pt each-way @ 17/2 (with sportingodds)
Total = 1pt staked

2010-11 Chasers & Hurdlers Alert List
CESIUM, 5yo 2nd season chaser trained by Tom GEORGE
CESIUM first came to my attention when he beat Rince Donn just before Christmas on 21st December at Ffos Las. It was the start of a good run of form for Rince Donn who won his next race and was unlucky not to win another, and ended the season on OR94, 8lbs higher than the day he met CESIUM. In that race on 21st Dec, CESIUM was in total command until crashing through the last fence after which he had to battle-back to win on the line. He flopped next time in what was a fast-run race (speed-rating of winner 116) and he quickly got tailed-off with trainer Tome George saying that he lost interest. Ridden more prominently on 17-Feb, he easily won a class 4 chase off OR96. He was beaten by the heavy going at Leicester on 02-Mar (all his decent form has been on Good-to-Soft or better going) and he bounced back to easily win another Class 4 chase at Bangor on 27-Mar with Prince Des Marais (OR100) 5-lengths back. That one went on to win his next 2 chases and is now rated OR123. In 3rd that day was Glimmer Of Light (OR81) and he’s also won 2 races since and is now rated OR98. Next up was a very competitive class 3 novice chase which was won by the progressive Midnight Chase (OR125) who has also won again since and is now rated OR137. In 2nd was Sound Stage (OR125) who has also been both consistent and progressive as a novice and went up 3lbs for this. That was the 8th race of the season for CESIUM and it probably was a visit to the trough too many. I would expect him to continue to improve, especially as his half-brother Cerium won a Class 1 (Grade 2) handicap chase at Ascot over 2m3f off OR144 for which he was raised 10lbs by the handicapper. CESIUM will be best over 2½ miles or thereabouts on good-to-soft or better, and his canny trainer will no doubt place him to advantage off his current mark of OR113. This looks very lenient as if he re-opposes Glimmer Of Light he’ll be on 9lb better terms despite having given him an 11-length beating last time they met. I would expect him to end the season on a mark of OR130+.

Already on the list:
ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 6yo 2nd season chaser trained by Chris GORDON

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Look Busy! Its an absolute shambles.

In today’s blog:
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of the week’s racing
After the previous week when the blog made a profit of 9.40pts on the week, this week has been a complete wash-out with 8pts lost and not a single winner from the 6 selections. We came closest with ICE DIVA who was a gallant 2nd at 4/1 when racing on unsuitable going due to showers at Newbury during the day causing the going to change from Good-to-Firm to Good-to-Soft.
When the weather is changeable, it is a good idea to throttle back on stakes and consider whether the going is really suitable for your selection, as most trainers will run the horse whatever if there is no possibility of injury to the horse.
With me on a bit of a losing run, it’s time to take a step back and rekindle my confidence in my ability to find value winners. Most people can find a race winner, but to find a winner of a race that is 8/1 in the market but should really be a 3/1 chance takes a bit of doing. What I do in these circumstances is go back to basics. I try not to look too hard for that winner. We are all guilty of looking at the form of a horse and reading too much into the recent run of a 10/1 chance and wondering why everyone else has missed that “gem” of information – only to watch the race and see your 10/1 selection trail in 5th. The time for total speculation is when your confidence is high and you are reading the form well.

On Saturday, Richard Hannon’s stable had 5 winners from 16 runners, but when you take into account he had 6 in the same race (the Super Sprint at Newbury) which he didn’t win, you realise his stable is in unstoppable form. Ralph Beckett also had 3 winners from just 6 runners and it’s this sort of trainer-form that you cannot afford to ignore in the quest for a profit from racing.

Over the next couple of weeks I will be having a summer break and may not have the time to make racing selections (family must come first). However, I have recently been reviewing my list of horses to follow for the jumps season. I have said before on this blog and I will say it again; there is a free horse alert facility at www.easyodds.com and you must take advantage. During the course of the last NH season from 1st October onwards, I noted the performance of probably about 200+ horses on the basis of that they had been perhaps under-rated by the handicapper and were capable of maintaining winning form. It proved to be an invaluable source of information to the point where I could back my own judgement almost blind and find winners at good odds.

So, over the coming weeks I’m going to post up the name of the occasional horse to include on a list to follow for this jumps season and, hopefully, provide a list of 12 to 15 that are potential profit makers. I will endeavour to avoid the obvious contenders for the horse-to-follow list (no Kauto Star’s and Denman’s on my list) and, instead, try and find those that can progress from Class 3 or 4 into a Class 2 chaser or hurdler during 2010-11.

The first of these is ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES. Just a 6yo, he had only 4 chase runs during 2009-10, the first being on 25-Oct after enjoying a summer break. In that debut chase he was beaten into 2nd by a race-fit rival over a trip perhaps 2f too far. In his next race, carrying 11:12 off OR89, he was dropped in trip to 3-mile and ran 3rd beaten by the experienced novice (having his 8th chase run) Brimham Boy and the race winner Dusk. Both of these have gone up the ratings since. Dusk went on to complete a hat-trick of wins and is now rated OR99 (18lb higher than when beating ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES); and Brimham Boy has won 2 races and never finished out of the 1st-4 since and is on OR105 (21lb higher). ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES then won on his 3rd run, beating a decent novice field with plenty of future winners. Of those behind, runner-up Reblis is now rated 8lb higher, Lord Appellare 13lb higher, and Fine Parchment 5lb higher. ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES was raised just 4lb for that win which was in a very respectable time on good-to-soft going and it’s probable that he would have won his last race but for a bad error which stopped him in his tracks, as he had the 2nd (Thai Vango) well behind him when he won.

As such, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES looks to be on a very lenient rating of OR92 going into the new season. Add that he can handle good-to-soft and stay 3-mile and runs from the front he looks to be a very exciting handicapping prospect. I reckon he's shown he's an OR100 chaser already and - with natural progression - could well be OR110+ as his full-sister Iron Maid won off OR115 as a hurdler and his half-brother Longshanks was 7th in the National won by Silver Birch and won off OR130 as a chaser. Trainer, Chris Gordon reports that “Shambo” is fit and well and back in training. He was rested after his January run as he doesn’t want it too soft and needed a bit more time to strengthen up. The aim is to give this progressive chaser his first race of the season towards the end of September.

Today’s Racing Selections
There is some decent racing today and at Ayr my FAVOURITE GIRL runs again. She’s won 3 of her last 4 starts and looks to have more improvement to come, but I reckon she’s best at 6-furlongs and this looks too tough for her today. I like the chance of LOOK BUSY who has dropped 6lb to OR98 (won off OR104 on 29-May) and has run well at this meeting for the past two seasons. I am not overly confident in making selections in sprint races as so much can go wrong with so little time to recover; but my “second-string” selections have been coming in recently (Myplacelater @ 6/1 and Ginger Jack @ 6/4) so perhaps it’s a mistake to not list this one. He’s 15/2.
There are some interesting evening meetings, so come back again after 5pm today and if I have an evening selection I’ll post either a new blog or add it as a comment to this one.

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Let the music play!

In today’s blog:
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s racing
Yesterday’s selection ICE DIVA was beaten by the weather (showers) causing a change in going to good-to-soft. Even so, she ran a solid race and on better going she can recoup the loss. At Hamilton, BONNIE CHARLIE was beaten by the draw; with 4 of the 1st-6 drawn less than 5. The same happened to GO GO GREEN with low drawn horses again dominating the race.
If the changeable weather continues today then it could be a day for giving it a miss.

Today’s Racing Selections
There is a lot of racing today, probably too much to focus on. I’ve been scanning the racing looking for an opportunity like last week’s winner. There seem to be quite a few non-runners and it’s playing havoc with the betting. There is an interesting race at Ripon at 3:25 and Tom Tate has his only runner at Ripon in this where he has a great strike rate (22%) at his local track. MUSIC OF THE MOOR did not like the fast going LTO, but before that he was on the upgrade. The horse that beat him on 25-May by a nose Yashrid is now rated 13lb higher; and the horse he beat on 14-April by a neck – I’m Super Too – is now rated 7lb higher. This makes MUSIC OF THE MOOR look fairly treated running off OR79 as he could be a few pounds well-in. The going today will suit and Tate has won this race twice in the last 3 years, last season with top notcher Distant Memories. Currently 8/1 (Sportingbet) looks fair each-way odds.

Ripon 3:25 MUSIC OF THE MOOR, 0.50pts EW @ 8/1 (Sportingbet)
1pt staked

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Ice, ice baby!

In today’s blog:
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s racing
Yesterday’s selection HIDDEN GLORY, ran a shocker. For his connections, its back to the drawing board. For the blog, 2pts lost.
The background theme to this blog is trainer-form, suggesting that by focusing on trainers who have their stables in top-form and are sending out just 1 or 2 runners from a stable of perhaps over 100 horses is a way to find winners; and identifying them gives you the edge. Yesterday, for instance, punters pal Sir Mark Prescott sent out a single runner – it won at 7/4. What about Roger Charlton? He sent out 2 runners to different tracks – both won at 11/10 and 3/1. How about Ralph Beckett? He sent out 3 runners and had 2 winners (both odds on). Hugh Morrison sent out 2 runners and had a 14/1 winner. Last but not least, I highlighted David Elsworth’s only runner yesterday - MYPLACELATER – and it won at 6/1 (unfortunately, not a blog selection).
Trainers, that’s the way to go!

Today’s Racing Selections
Plenty of racing to choose from today. Avertor was a blog selection a few weeks back but was a non-runner. Roger Charlton has been very selective in looking for a race for this one (whose dam was a sister to Avonbridge, top-class prolific sprinter and winner of Prix de l´Abbaye, and half-sister to Patavellian, also a top sprinter and winner of Prix de l´Abbaye). Avertor is Charlton’s only runner at Haydock this afternoon, in the 2:55 and could prove hard to beat off OR80 as this may turn out to be a group class sprinter (OR110+). The money is down now as he’s just 11/4 from 9/2 this morning.

Of the other meetings, at Newbury there is a class 4 fillies handicap and Paul D’Arcy seems to have found a weak race for his improving filly ICE DIVA. A winner at the 10f trip LTO, before that she was beaten by Agent Charlie a short-head and he’s also won since. The others in the race look like they need to improve a fair bit. Add to that D’Arcy has won 4 from just 10 runners at Newbury in past 5 years and he is very selective with his small stable and odds of 7/2 (Ladbroke) look generous.

Now then, time for a bit of speculation and I’m going for a long-odds each-way double. At Hamilton, willie Haggas sends just BONNIE CHARLIE 360 miles here, and he’s had 6 winners from 12 runners at the track. BONNIE CHARLIE gets the good-to-soft going he craves and a bold run is expected. He’s 14/1 (from 16’s) but dropping, so get in quick. At Pontefract, GO GO GREEN has won here 3 times from 4 starts at the 5-furlong trip. He loves it here and gets the Good-to-Firm going too. He ran very well off OR86 on his last run at 5f (winner Hotham has won again since, as has runner-up Favourite Girl), and he’s dropped to OR83 after a poor run at 6-furlongs.

Selections:
Newbury ICE DIVA, 2pts win @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes)

Hamilton 7:45 BONNIE CHARLIE @ 14/1
Pontefract 7:35 GO GO GREEN @ 10/1
0.50pts each-way double

Total= 3pts staked

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Thursday Evening

I've had a wager on HIDDEN GLORY on both its last 2 runs and was particularly miffed when it was collared in the last 100 yards LTO when it looked the winner entering the final furlong, but went out like a light.

Today, in the 7:45 at Epsom, it looks to have a much easier race on paper than then. I envisage similar tactics being employed and there does not look any in the race that will trouble him. Trainer Pat Eddery has only sent 3 runners to Epsom in the past 5 years and 2 have won! He replaces "claimer" Martin Lane (who won the John Smiths Cup on Saturday on Wigmore Hall) with Darryll Holland and hopefully he will ensure that there is no mistake this time. There was a bit of 11/4 available earlier, but he's still 5/2 with Hills and Bet365 and I'd take it quick.

Selection:
Epsom 7:45 HIDDEN GLORY, 2pts win @ 5/2 (Hills & Bet365)

When it rains, it pours!

In today’s blog:
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s racing
Yesterday’s selection in the 4:30 at Lingfield DOCOFTHEBAY was well beaten, with 2pts lost. That’s not to say he wasn’t a good choice as he looked like making a major challenge at the 2f pole as the field entered the short straight, but he couldn’t find a way thru’. As I commented after the race (see yesterday’s blog) I had seriously considered Benandonner, the eventual 7/1 winner, but overlooked him; mainly as he was 1 of 3 confirmed front-runners in the race and I thought they’d be likely to be caught by a strong finisher on the line. That, and I rated Benandonner a 4/1 chance and (at 10:30am when I was writing my blog) it was likely he’d start at those odds or shorter. For some reason, Benandonner took a “drift” in the market (I made a comment on the Betfair forum to that fact) out to 10.0 (9/1) before being supported. Had I known he’d start at 7/1 then he’d have been the selection as there was no-way I could see him being outside the 1st-3; but an each-way wager on a 4/1 chance most likely to be placed is a losing wager at ¼odds. To rub salt in, DOCOFTHEBAY had an SP of just 6/1 (from 10/1), there being some serious money before the off.

Today’s Racing Selections
When it rains, it pours! There are 6 meetings in the UK with 5 of them on the flat. The afternoon meetings at Hamilton and Leicester don’t look very attractive with lots of class 5 & 6 races. However, the Class 3 conditions race at 3:50 at Leicester could be interesting if we knew which of these horses was going to run true to form as they all come here on the back of a disappointing run. The booking of Keiren Fallon on the Elsworth trained Myplacelater catches the eye, as Fallon rode a winner for Elsworth at Windsor on Monday.
The plan today is to take a bit more time and examine the evening meetings and have a “part II” blog posting later on before 5pm.

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Sittin' in the mornin' sun...

In today’s blog:
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s racing
There were no selections given yesterday. However, I did suggest that those in need of a punt should look to GINGER JACK and it duly won at 11/8 (advised at 6/4).
I updated my “blog selection” spread-sheet yesterday, and since 1st May when the blog basically went full-time, I’ve posted 62 selections. Of those, 13 (21%) have won and 10 have been placed (from EW advices); in short a financial return was achieved on 37% of all selections made. That is the sort of strike-rate I aim for, although I would prefer to have more winners. I’ve reduced the number of selections recently, as I am trying to avoid making speculative selections just to post on the blog. Hopefully, that will transfer into a greater percentage of winners and ultimately more profit. From 118pts staked, a profit of only 8.67pts has been generated (7.34% ROI, return on investment). This does not include profits from suggestions in the blog like Ginger Jack (won), Sans Frontieres (won @ 14/1), Special Duty (place-lay profit) and so on.

Today’s Racing Selections
Another day of very ordinary racing.
With racing in the lower classes (4, 5 and 6) the horses are less consistent in performance and form-lines are trickier to read. As such, you have to rely on whether or not the trainer knows if his horse is ready to do the business and, as he will pass on that information to the owners so they can have a wager, await any market moves. I do not wager in accordance with market moves. I know there are people who do, thinking that if the odds on a runner drop from 8/1 to 5/1 then there must be a valid reason, but if that move has merely taken the horse from the 4th in the market to be 3rd in the market behind a 9/4 fav and 7/2 2nd fav, then it still has only a 17% chance of winning at 5/1 compared to a 11% chance at 8/1.

There is an interesting Class 3 handicap at Lingfield on the AW at 4:30 over a mile. Top-weight is an old “friend” of mine Benandonner, who I have followed since he was a 3yo. This horse is a good galloper but has no change of pace at the finish, hence stats of 3 wins and 8 x 2nds in 37 runs. He will ensure a decent pace, as will Den’s Gift who also likes to make the running. Bintalwaadi, who gets the 3yo weight-for-age allowance, also won over C&D on 20-Apr and the horse he beat that day (Fireback) is now rated OR91, which suggests that Bintalwaadi could potentially be OR98 (runs off OR89 today). As such, he is the 6/4 fav, but he is another who likes to set the pace, and these 3 could set-up the race for a finisher from off the pace, and one that jumps out is DOCOFTHEBAY. His latest 2 runs have been poor, but he was drawn on the wrong side LTO in the Hunt Cup. However, on 13-May he was 5th, beaten just over 3-lengths in a Listed h’cap at York off OR94. He’s dropped to OR89 today (and he was 2nd in the Hunt Cup in 2008 off OR103). This is a big drop in class for DOCOFTHEBAY and if he’s in the mood he’ll eat these for breakfast. Current odds of 10/1 look fair as he’s the sort who will either win or run unplaced.

Selection:
Lingfield 4:30 DOCOFTHEBAY, ½pt each-way
Lingfield 4:30 DOCOFTHEBAY, 1pt win
Total 2pts staked

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Striking Spirit for the Stewards Cup?

In today’s blog:
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s racing
There were no selections given yesterday. Even so, there were some interesting pointers. At Windsor, Kieren Fallon had one ride for David Elsworth, Hidden Fire. Going into yesterday, Fallon had won on 2 of the 3 rides he had for Elsworth at Windsor in the past 5 years. Hidden Fire won at 11/2, making it 3 wins from 4 rides. Statistics eh! Some cannot be manipulated by politicians. Having checked the Timeform stats page (which is free), those 3 wins have been the last 3 rides Fallon has had for Elsworth at Windsor, and each race was over the same trip; a mile and 67 yards. Make a note at the next meeting at Windsor of what Fallon rides and for whom. Talking of form and statistics, there is plenty of free information available on the “net” and I use sportinglife.com; attheraces.com and racinguk.com. There are other sites that provide free video form from time-to-time as well. Does anyone else have any recommendations?

At the other end of the jockey scale, finding a “claimer” who is good value for their claim is a valuable exercise, and we may have one in Adam Beschizza. He’s won 5 races from 12 rides for trainers Gay Kelleway and Simon Dow, and yesterday from 2 rides at Ffos Las he rode another winner, making it 2 wins from 2 rides for Sylvester Kirk. These three trainers think they have found a decent claimer worth more than his 7lb. Gay Kelleway has him booked for a couple of rides on Wednesday – take note.

It’s not long now till “Glorious Goodwood” and the Stewards Cup over 6-furlongs is a spectacular sprint handicap. Palace Moon, who went so close at the July Meeting, was previously 3rd to Laddies Poker Two in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot. That form is now looking top-notch, especially as Genki in 6th that day has since won a Class 2. Both are entered for the Stewards Cup – and for the Group 1 Betfred Sprint at Haydock in September. They are both 8/1 for the Stewards Cup, but a horse that beat them fair’n’square at Royal Ascot – STRIKING SPIRIT – is at 16/1. For him, 6-furlongs on good-to-firm is what he loves. He ran in the Stewards Cup last year when 8th to Genki, but that was on soft going, and he is 4lb better-off on that run and has shown he has the beating of Genki (who has a further 3lb penalty for that Class 2 win) based on Wokingham form. At this stage, so long as the good weather continues, to me he looks the one they have to beat and 16/1 looks good value. He could be worth a small each-way antepost wager, pending knowledge of the draw prior to the race.

Today’s Racing Selections
There is very ordinary fare on offer today, so there will be no selection.
However, those in need of a punt should look to GINGER JACK at Musselburgh in the 7:50 tonight. Mark Johnston has found what looks to be an easy class 3 for him. The odds will not be lucrative tho’ and I can see this one starting slightly odds-on, perhaps 5/6; as such it may be best to take the current offer of 6/4. If Billy Dane can recover his form of last summer he would give GINGER JACK a lot to think about but his form has gone completely, with Saturday’s run behind Capponi being awful. In-form trainer Jeremy Noseda sends just GOLD GLEAM to Yarmouth for the 8:00 tonight, but I am not happy making selections in class 5 races over 5-furlongs.

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Viva Espana!

In today’s blog:
Review of last week’s racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of last week’s racing
Great week for the blog starting with a 7/1 winner and ending with a 5/1 winner providing a 9.40pts profit on 11pts invested; that’s an 85% return on investment.

We had some great racing during the week which saw some terrific performances, both equine and human. For me, the equine performance of the week was from STARSPANGLEDBANNER, who looked extremely impressive winning the July Cup showing relentless pace. The training performance of the week was undoubtedly from Richard Hannon who sent out a remarkable 14 winners in the 7-days from 48 runners. He was closely followed by Mark Johnston (9 winners & 11 placed from 41 runners).

From the jockeys, Graham Gibbons has been riding in the form of his life these past few weeks and getting winners from horse’s that he really shouldn’t be. He is starting to transfer his AW prowess (+£130.09 profit to a £1 level stake on all rides this season) to the turf and he’s a jockey to keep an eye on.

Today’s Racing Selections
There is very ordinary fare on offer today, so there will be no selection.
There is only one particular horse that catches my eye and it’s not because of what is in the formbook, as it’s never run before. Trainer, Ed McMahon has a tremendous ability to get a 2yo ready to win with an 18% strike-rate from all 2yo’s in the past 5 years (45 winners from 252 runners; +£24.27 profit to a £1 level stake). He sends one to Wolverhampton for the 6:20 IMAGINARY WORLD. So far this season, McMahon has had 2 winners from his 2yo’s, with both ridden by Richard Mullen who rides today. Mullen has ridden both the 2yo winners from just 5 rides on McMahon 2yo’s. This is Mullen’s only ride today, and he has no booked rides for tomorrow. Unless he rides a winner, he’s on just £96.50 (before tax) for today. Half-bro to IMAGINARY WORLD is the fairly useless Tom Wade (by Rakti), but “World” is by sprint stallion Exceed And Excel and she may be a different proposition. Currently 11/1, she may be worth a tickle.

And lastly, well done to Spain in winning the World Cup.

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One selection - one winner @ 5/1

What a tremendous win yesterday for the selection. CAPPONI was 5/1 when the advice was given, and was still 5/1 just 15 mins before the race. Then the money came in and it started at just 3/1 - the result was never in doubt! So, at 1pt ew that's 6.25pts profit on the day. No racing selection today (it being a Sunday).

As for the World Cup Final, come on the Netherlands! Those who follow the blog will know that on 21st June, I advised taking the 9/1 about the Netherlands to win the trophy. You can take a profit now, or just lay-off your original stake, or let it ride.

Enjoy the game.

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Hail the conquering hero, or give him a 6-day ban?

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s Racing
What a performance from STARSPANGLEDBANNER. Jockey, Johnny Murtagh should be congratulated in winning from stall 11 – instead he gets a 6-day ban! Would the stewards have also banned him had he run a “normal” line from the stalls and finished 3rd or 4th on the basis of not riding the horse to its true merit? He was on the best horse in the race and the favourite, and it won – what more do the Stewards want?
Rant over, I was on the right wavelength with DUBAI DYNAMO, the selection yesterday, as the horse he beat on 28th May – St Moritz – duly won. Unfortunately, DUBAI DYNAMO was slow out of the stalls and was then chased into a winning position 3f out but that did for his chances and he faded. Very few horses can accelerate twice in a race. Don’t ignore the run of runner-up Palace Moon. This is further confirmation of the Wokingham form – it will crop up again and again this summer.

Today’s Racing Selections
A terrific days racing for a Saturday, and with so much going on you cannot hope to appraise it all. So, as with yesterday, it may pay to focus on a single race, and it’s the 2:30 at York. Mark Johnston is in red-hot form with 3 winners and 3 x 2nds from his 10 runners yesterday. He sends only one to York this afternoon – his local track – CAPPONI. With a low draw (3) over a mile at York, this front-runner will prove hard to catch being an improving 3yo (only one in the race) with the important 3yo allowance. Currently 5/1 this looks good value, take each-way just in case he’s caught close home.

York 2:30 CAPPONI, 1pt each-way @ 5/1
Total = 2pts staked

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Bunbury Cup 40/1 special

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s Racing
I was looking at my record of wagers over the past 10 weeks that I’ve posted up on the blog, and it seems that when I post up 1 or 2 selections that my win-rate is higher than when I post up 3+ selections. That’s how it was yesterday, with 3 losing selections from 3 advised wagers, costing the blog 4pts. The main selection, HOLBERG was very disappointing; no tactical speed and one-paced. Only consolation for me was noting the Noseda horse Sans Frontieres, which was his only runner yesterday – he’s now had 4 wins and 3 placed from just 8 runners in past 8-days. HEAR THE ROAR was the subject of a major market move from 3/1 in to 15/8. He did not handle the Epsom track yet, when he got balanced, he took nearly 3-lengths off the eventual winner to go down by just a neck. He can recoup this loss next time. It was a similar story for HAND PAINTED who was full of running in 4th behind the leading trio but could not find a way thru’. He is another who will recoup this loss next time.

Today’s Racing Selections
What is going on with the race-planners at the Jockey Club? Last week, the racing available was plain awful, class 5’s and 6’s everywhere. Today, we have the climax of the July Meeting at Newmarket with the Group 1 July Cup, plus what was the Bunbury Cup (Class 2 h’cap), with other h’caps over 12f at Class 3 and a mile at Class 2. Then, there is a meeting at York which has a 12f h’cap at Class 2. At Ascot, there is a meeting (again in the afternoon) with a Class 3 h’cap at a mile. Going into the evening, there is a meeting at Chester and another in the South at Newbury, and a third at Chepstow in Wales. Why have 6 meetings at premier tracks – 2 separated by less than 20 miles – on a Friday, with top handicaps clashing in trip and class? Are there enough racing staff and, more the point, enough paying customers?

With so much racing, you have to focus on a particular race to find a winner. As such, I’ve only looked at one race and that’s the Bunbury Cup (or 32Red Trophy) at 3:25 at Newmarket. If you think the fav St Moritz is a 7/1 chance, what about DUBAI DYNAMO which beat him by a head on 28th May and is now only 2lbs worse off - yet is 40/1. Trainer, Mrs Carr, has only had a single runner at Newmarket (July) before, and only a single runner on the Rowley mile course which was DUBAI DYNAMO when it beat St Moritz. This is Mrs Carr's only runner today. So, she knows what it takes to get a horse to win at Newmarket. As for DD, it missed most of 2009, but has had come back from an injury and is now only just above the rating it started its 3yo season at (OR96 then, OR99 today) after winning the 2yo trophy at Redcar. It loves good-to-firm and it'll stay a mile. Has a cracking middle draw and Hayley Turner handles him well. I reckon should be no more than 16/1. Must be an each-way selection.

Newmarket 3:25 DUBAI DYNAMO, 0.5pts win @ 40/1
Total = 1pt staked

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Hit the Crossbar! Spacious 2nd @ 10/1

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s Racing
Hit the crossbar yesterday with SPACIOUS coming-in 2nd @ 9/1 (advised at 10/1). That cost us a ½pt loss, but the winner came from “left-field” and all the expected dangers were well beaten. What I was spot-on with was Special Duty who was exposed by the strong pace of the race and, as expected, did not justify the market support and was an exceptional “place-lay” at 1.80 on the exchanges prior to the off. BTW, Music Show, which beat Spacious is – in my opinion – the best 3yo filly we’ve seen this season by far. There were a few trainers-in-form who had single runners out; notably TD Easterby who followed-up on his 2 winners from 4 runners on Tuesday with another winner from his only runner yesterday – and it won at 7/1 as well.

Today’s Racing Selections
Some good racing today, with 2nd day of the July Meeting at Newmarket this afternoon. Give the afternoon meeting at Folkstone a miss, but there is some interest at Warwick where the 2:55 is a competitive affair. Paul D’Arcy and TD Barron have their only runners of the day in this, and trainers in hot-form TD Easterby and Mark Johnston also have runners. At Newmarket in the opening race we may have the answer to the old question “weight can slow a horse down, but can lack of weight make it run quicker?” Last time they met Corsica gave 18lb to Harris Tweed and was beaten 5-lengths; today they meet on level-weights so Corsica should win. But will the weight turnaround make the difference? The 2:35 3yo handicap over 10f looks extremely competitive and a race I will not try and solve.
The Group 2 at 3:10 looks to hold a decent value wager in HOLBERG at current odds of 100/30. The form of his latest run when winning at Goodwood on 4th June has been franked by the placed horses, and the fav Spanish Moon is a horse that prefers a bit of “give” in the going. The Noseda horse Sans Frontieres, which is his only runner today, is also interesting as he was a very well-thought-of 3yo who ran in the Dante at York after coming 2nd to Delegator in the Craven. He could well make the frame at long odds.
This evening at Doncaster, Henry Cecil sends up AEGEAN SHADOW for the 7:45 but current best-odds of just 7/4 are far too skinny for a half-brother to 6-furlong sprinter Corporal Maddox that is trying a mile for the first time.
At Epsom, in the 7:55 HEAR THE ROAR benefits from the 3yo weight allowance and this unexposed horse can win on his local track, looking value at 3/1. In the final race on the card at 9:00, Peter Makin’s HAND PAINTED can improve on his last run which came after a 283-day break. That form looks good as the winner has won again since. HAND PAINTED is best at 6f on good-to-firm and should handle Epsom having won twice at Brighton.

Newmarket 3:10 HOLBERG, 2pts win @ 3/1
Epsom 7:55 HEAR THE ROAR, 1pts win @ 100/30
Epsom 9:00 HAND PAINTED, 0.50pts EW @ 6/1 (with Ladbrokes)
Total = 4pts staked

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Spacious to take the Falmouth @ 10/1

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing
Today’s Racing Selections
World Cup

Review of yesterday’s Racing
No racing selections yesterday, but there was the usual advice to follow trainers in form.

Henry Cecil who had a 40% placed strike-rate coming into yesterday (3 wins: 1 placed; from 10 runners) in the past 14-days sent out 2 runners, and had an 8/1 winner at Wolverhampton; his other entry at Pontefract being a non-runner. That makes it 4 winners from his 8 runners in the past week! Jamie Osborne came into the day also with a 40% strike-rate (3w & 3p from 15) and sent one to Wolverhampton that won at 10/1. That makes it 3 winners from 4 runners in just 6 days for him.

Today’s Racing Selections
I have been on a good run of form lately myself, with Monday’s winner being my 3rd from my last 7 selections over the past week, bringing in 9.20pts profit to a total outlay of 14pts – that’s a 65% return on investment.
At Newmarket today there are some tricky races, but I am looking at the main feature, the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes. All eyes are on the fav Lily Langtry after her win at Royal Ascot in the Coronation Stakes. The value of that win though, is debatable given the form of the 3yo fillies generally who appear much of a muchness. She is the best of the 3yo’s in this with Rainfall unlikely to stay a mile; Special Duty looking a lucky winner of both the English and French Guineas; and Music Show crying-out for 10-furlongs. That is also the same of Gile Na Greine who was considered an Oaks filly back in April. So, how good is Lily Langtry? As she was thought to be going up to 10-furlongs for the Pretty Polly at the Curragh and didn’t beat a true miler at Royal Ascot, I’d say she has to improve about 5lbs to guarantee winning this. Of the older horses, Lahaleeb will not enjoy this trip (wants 10f) nor enjoy the going (likes “give”). There is nothing between Strawberrydaiquiri and SPACIOUS on their last meeting, yet SPACIOUS is 10/1 compared to 5/1 for her short-head conqueror at levels LTO. Today’s race should be run at the pace she needs (courtesy of Gile Na Greine) and her 3rd in last year’s Falmouth won by Goldikova puts her right in the picture in this. It is nigh on impossible for me to see her finishing outside the 1st-3 and she could easily reverse the placing’s with Strawberrydaiquiri and, if Lily Langtry is not quite as good a miler as expected, she can win this. Therefore, 10/1 looks an absolute gift. I reckon she is more like a 9/2 chance (Strawberrydaiquiri @ 4/1; Lily Langtry @ 3/1; Special Duty @ 8/1). I will probably “place-lay” Special Duty.

Newmarket 3:10 SPACIOUS, 0.5pts each-way @ 10/1 (with Bet365 at ¼odds)
Newmarket 3:10 SPACIOUS, 1pts win @ 10/1 (with Bet365)
Total = 2pts staked

World Cup
What a result! Netherlands are in the final of the World Cup. I really hope those who follow this blog took the 9/1 which I advised on 21st June about The Netherlands to win the World Cup. They are not the most spectacular side, but remember, football is a team game. It is not a game played by individuals looking for personal glory. Both the Netherlands and Uruguay (who bravely fought to the last whistle) played like a team. As do Germany who, on that basis, should beat Spain and meet the Netherlands in the final. Time to lay-off the stake and savour in the potential profits.

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Tremendous 6/1 winner advised yesterday

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing
Today’s Racing Selections
World Cup

Review of yesterday’s Racing
It all came good yesterday, with DESERT POPPY winning at odds of 6/1. I did say in the blog that she could be a lot better than her OR76 rating, and I think she could turn out to be OR88+. It was a big ask to come out and win on her 3yo debut from seasoned, race-fit older horses and that’s why I advised not taking less than 6/1. In fact, DESERT POPPY touched 8/1 in the closing minutes before the off. If you visited the blog again before the race, you will see that I advised taking the 7/1 on offer at the time to 1pt each-way. So that’s 8.40pts profit. You may also have noticed my late comment about Equuleus Pictor in the same race, and the going. This horse has only ever won on good-to-soft going or softer and, in 21 starts on good or quicker, it’s only been placed 5 times. Why it started at 7/1 is beyond me and I managed to lay-it to be unplaced in-running when it was leading after 3-furlongs. As expected, it faded and finished out of the places.

At what about trainers in-form? Jeremy Noseda made it 2 winners from 3 runners in 3 days when his sole runner of the day SQUALL took the 9:20 at Ripon at 9/4. I didn’t make it a selection but you should have seriously considered its chances. And what about BROADWAY DANCER in the same race? This well-bred maiden was 3rd at 20/1 – the best advice is available free on the Wayward Lad blog!

Another trainer in-form is Mark Johnston. He can be difficult to follow as he has 200 horses in-training at his stable and it’s not unusual for him to send out 8 or more on a single day. Yesterday, he sent out 4 runners; 3 to Ripon and just 1 to Windsor. The runner at Windsor won at 8/1 (was the “tissue” fav at 5/2 in the RP), and he had 2 winner at Ripon at 5/1 and 5/4 with his other runner finishing 2nd, beaten by SQUALL. That was a fantastic 120/1 treble.

Today’s Racing Selections
It looks rather poor racing today, probably as the Newmarket July Meeting is later this week. After winning with 3 from 4 yesterday, Mark Johnston sends out only EPIC for the 3:00 at Pontefract, but this looks a tricky affair, especially as Geoff Harker has his only runner out today – AUTUMN HARVEST – in the same race, and Fahey also has a fancied runner.

So, I cannot see any value at the moment. Maybe more later on.

World Cup
Yesterday, I wrote on the blog that Netherlands face Germany in the Semi-Final of the World Cup, but in fact they meet Uruguay. I really hope those who follow this blog took the 9/1 which I advised on 21st June about The Netherlands , it looks like a cracking opportunity for a big win and more than makes up for the disappointing efforts made in the opening round of fixtures.

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Dick Turpin - highway robbery

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing
Today’s Racing Selections
World Cup

Review of yesterday’s Racing
No selections posted on the blog yesterday (it being a Sunday) but what a great result from France with Richard Hannon’s DICK TURPIN confirming the superiority of the English “milers” in taking the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly from a top-quality field - including French Guineas and Derby winner Lope De Vega - at the generous odds of 5/1. It was probably asking a lot of Lope De Vega to drop back to a mile from the 10½-furlongs of the French Derby trip. What the result confirmed was that CANFORD CLIFFS is a very talented miler – probably one of the best we’ve seen in recent years – as Hannon thinks he is clearly superior to DICK TURPIN. The form of yesterday’s race in which Hearts Of Fire (4th) and Siyouni (2nd) re-opposed DICK TURPIN when read in conjunction with the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot confirms that there were no “hard luck” stories at Royal Ascot.

Today’s Racing Selections
We know that summer is here when we have the July Meeting at Newmarket. Its 3 weeks since Royal Ascot so we can expect to see many of those that raced there, racing again this week. Trainers in form is the way to go at the height of summer and paying attention to those trainers sending just a single runner to the track on any given day can be very lucrative. For instance, Jeremy Noseda sent out just Group Therapy (2nd @ 3/1) on Saturday but followed that up on Sunday with a 5/4 winner from his only runner at Brighton where he has now had 14 winners from just 27 runners in the past 5 years. Today, he sends just SQUALL to Ripon (where he’s had only 6 runners in the past 5 years) for the 9:20. There are meetings on the flat today at Bath and this evening at Ripon and Windsor. Nothing jumps out of the card at Bath, though Sir Mark Prescott’s only runner today COMEDY ACT will be hard to beat – but I don’t really like races with fewer than 6 runners, and there’s only 4 in this. At Ripon, the final race at 9:20 is an interesting 3yo maiden as, along with Noseda, Saeed Bin Suroor sends his only runner today, MUREB, all the way from Newmarket. There is also the interesting BROADWAY DANCER from Richard Fahey’s stable making its debut in the race. Her dam is a half-sister to the outstanding Arazi, and Broadway Dancer is her 1st foal.
At Windsor, there is also an interesting 3yo maiden at 8:40 with single stable runners from Stoute (ENTITLED) and Gosden (FUN AFFAIR). However, the race that I will be watching with interest is the 7:40, a 5f class 4 handicap with the well handicapped DESERT POPPY making her 3yo debut. She could be a lot better than her OR76 rating, and 11/2 is fair but I’d be happier taking 6/1 plus.

So, no wagers today though if you can get 6/1 plus about DESERT POPPY in the Windsor 7:40 then I’d wager 1pt ew.

World Cup
Brazil is beaten at the Quarter-Final stage and their manager Dunga gets the sack! It’s a hard world in international football. This time last week, the focus was on the “domination” of the World Cup by the South American countries; today there is just Uruguay left in (after a despicable hand-ball incident prevented Ghana from winning) after Argentina and Paraguay were knocked-out along with Brazil. A small consolation for this blog was the success of the Netherlands team who are now in the Semi-Final meeting Germany. If you look back to the blog of 21st June, I wrote “given that so many teams are playing so poorly, the Netherlands at 9/1 (Hills) look good value”. How right that looks now! Today, they are just 9/4 to lift the trophy.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Sunday Supplement

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Weekly review

Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Great start to the day with TWICE OVER taking the race by the scruff of the neck and running out a solid winner at an SP of 13/8. As expected (see yesterday’s blog) there was a huge amount of money on him through the day, having opened at 9/4 in the morning. That was the high-spot. I was disappointed with both the other selections. I did highlight that Saeed Bin Suroor only had 2 runners out on the day, both at Haydock. Unfortunately, I put the wrong one on the blog as the selection; though I did fancy the other ANHAR who won at 10/1. His other runner, GLOBAL CITY, clearly needed the run as he was holding every chance inside the 2f pole till fading. As for I’M SUPER TOO, this run is best ignored. He looked very uncomfortable on this tight right-handed track and although he’s won going right-handed, in my opinion his best runs have been going left-handed at Chester and Redcar. Overall, we finished even on the day.

Weekly review
Not a bad week, 2pts lost on Wednesday, 2.80pts won on Friday and no loss on Saturday meant the blog was in profit 0.8pts on the week. One that I missed yesterday was VIRGINIA HALL who won at the very generous odds of 11/2 considering her official rating of OR105 was only a 1lb less than that of the 13/8 fav and this was the only stable ride for Sen Sanders from his guvnor Sir Mark Prescott. I keep saying it, and will no doubt do it again, you have to keep a focus on what the trainers in form are doing – it’s the only angle that the punter has.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Eclipse - Twice Over?

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
What a great couple of selections and we almost had a cracking 20pt+ win double! PRINCE SEIGFREID went to the front 2-furlongs out with the intent of blunting the speed of only danger Stotsfold, but despite battling all the way to the line and only losing the lead inside the final 100 yards, he went down by half-a-length.

But our FAVOURITE GIRL made up for that leading all the way to the line to hold on by just a head and win. Subject of some considerable market support, she was the 5/2 fav having been advised on the blog when at 4/1. So, overall a 2.80pts profit on the day from 4pts staked.

Today’s Racing Selections
There is some tremendous racing today and the Eclipse at Sandown can go to the fav TWICE OVER. He was the blog selection at Royal Ascot and but for being held back at the start of his run he may well have won. He is the only 10f, Group 1 horse in the race and current odds of 2/1 look fair. He was 9/4 earlier this morning and could well start the 7/4 fav. Only worry is the lack of pace in the race but TWICE OVER has the best turn-of-foot here. The rest of the Sandown card is absolute top-class and very competitive.

There may be some easier pickings about today with all the quality racing and, at Beverley, Sir Michael Stoute sends just Cabal for the 4:25. However, the form of his win LTO has not held up and I’m more taken by Swinbank’s I’M SUPER TOO who seems to have got the hang of racing now and today’s going and trip will suit. Also, he’s from a decent family and he could have a fair bit more improvement to come. Currently 9/2 (with William Hill) he looks good value as Cabal is not an 11/8 chance.

Finally, Saeed Bin Suroor sends out just 2 runners today, both at Haydock. On the face of it, both have little chance of winning. However, I think they both will run decent races. I’m going for GLOBAL CITY who won at Haydock on good-to-firm over this 6f trip last June. This race has cut up today with the going getting quicker by the hour which will suit GLOBAL CITY and not the fav Genki. Currently 9/1 (with Stan James) he looks tremendous value.

Selections:
Sandown 3:10 TWICE OVER, 2pts win @ 2/1
Beverley 4:25 I’M SUPER TOO, 1pt each-way @ 9/2
Haydock 4:35 GLOBAL CITY, 1pt each-way @ 9/1

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Friday double

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Despite there being a lot of racing about, I didn’t put a selection up yesterday and that’s just as well as the couple that I was considering both came 2nd. Half the success in making a profit in this game is avoiding the losers. Better to wager on a winner at 2/1 than a gallant loser at 8/1.

Part of the effort in finding those winners is watching racing and reviewing why a horse won a particular race. I pay a lot of attention to trainer statistics basically on the premise that they are human and, like most humans, are habitual in their habits. For instance, yesterday I noted on the blog that Gordon Elliot – the Irish trainer – has a “love affair” with Perth in Scotland, and had sent 3 winners out from 6 runners on Wednesday. Well yesterday, he sent out another 3 winners at odds, of 5/2, 9/1 and 6/4 but he did that from only 5 runners on the day. It would have been well worth having a bet on each of his runners at Perth irrespective of their chance in the formbook. In the past 5 years, Elliot has sent 159 runners to Perth and had 47 winners, that’s a 30% strike rate.

Today’s Racing Selections
Friday is the start of the racing weekend and there is some great racing today with afternoon meetings at Doncaster, Sandown and Warwick.

Back on 29th April, I wrote about FAVOURITE GIRL. When a 2yo, she was 2nd (btn a head) in a Listed race over 6f trip and was rated OR104 on that run. She struggled as a 3yo off that rating and on 29th April was running off OR78. It looks like she needed to regain race-fitness as she dropped a couple more pounds to OR74 off which she won. LTO, she won for the 2nd time in her last 3 races, this time off OR78. I reckon she’s capable of running well up to OR90 and she’s out again at Doncaster in the 5:15 running off OR84. It is only 5-furlongs today, and she’d prefer 6-furlongs, but some of these are well off-form and would also prefer the longer trip. Currently at 4/1, she looks terrific value given that she’s bang in-form and has the potential to keep on improving.

Despite all eye’s being on the Men’s semi-finals at Wimbledon, there is a great card at Sandown today and the Listed race at 4:00 looks very competitive on paper. However, I think the one to have on your side is Saeed Bin Suroor’s PRINCE SIEGFRIED. Likely favourite, Confront, is much better at a mile, and Stotsfold is very consistent and will be finishing with a rattle; but the 6lb he gives to PRINCE SEIGFRIED is probably too much given that the selection will come on for his recent run and Suroor has his stable in much better form now. Current odds of 100/30 look value.

Selections:
Sandown 4:00 PRINCE SIEGFIRED, 2pts win @ 100/30
Doncaster 5:15 FAVOURITE GIRL, 1pt each-way @ 4/1

The meeting at Haydock tonight has some decent races, and hopefully I’ll come back bit later on with something useful.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad.

Thursday evening racing

Back this evening?

In today’s blog:
Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
Today’s Racing Selections

Review of yesterday’s Racing Selections
If nothing else, I was right about needing to have a front-runner over Catterick’s 7f trip, as yesterday’s race over C&D was won by Nufoudh who made all to win. Out of stall 2, Nufooudh broke quick and grabbed the rail, which is where I wanted the blog selection GLENRIDDING to be. The subject of considerable market support from 5/1 in to 3/1, GLENRIDDING basically threw-in the towel with about 2f to go when he realised he could not dominate the race. Based on previous meetings, I reckon GLENRIDDING is about 4lb better (at least) than Nufoudh, so in only giving him a 1lb yesterday he should have won – but it was all about grabbing the lead and the rail in the first 100 yards of the race.

Other news included Henry Cecil ending a 2-week barren spell with a 16/1 winner at Kempton on the AW. Mick Jarvis sent out only one runner, Jaaryah to Kempton and it won at 5/1; that gives him 4 winners from 8 runners in the past 5-days. Trainer, Gordon Elliot’s love affair with Perth continues unabated and he sent out 3 winners there yesterday from 6 runners (he did have 2 in the same race, 1 of which won) with 2 of the others placed.

Today’s Racing Selections
Plenty of racing to choose from today, with a good meeting at Haydock this afternoon. There’s another at Yarmouth, and evening meetings at Epsom, Newbury and Redcar.

The meeting at Haydock has some decent races, but I’m going to take a long look at the evening meetings and hopefully come back bit later on with something useful.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad.