Monthly round-up

This afternoon, I’m flying out for a week in Spain (back on Sunday 6th March), so there won’t be a blog next week, but hopefully should be back up & running on Monday 7th March.

This morning, the day most eagerly awaited (other than the 1st day of the Festival) is upon us when through the post-box drops the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide written by Paul Jones. This is a remarkable booklet, not only for providing positive angles for punters on the forthcoming Cheltenham Festival, but also being a good read in itself. What anyone who likes to have a wager on the horses can do is learn from this book. It is an abject lesson in how to assess a horserace (or anything that you might want to have a wager on). Previous Festival results are assessed and analysed, and any trends appertaining to the result are identified. The overall objective is to allow the punter the ability to produce a shortlist of likely winners and so concentrate their form-study on those.

I did write in my blog yesterday that if Russian Flag was in the mood, then he was thrown-in off a mark 3lb lower than when he won a class 2 h’cap over C&D at Sandown, and win he did at 7/1. My selection KILKENNY ALL STAR ran an absolute stinker, and that was probably expected by connections as he drifted markedly before the off from 5/1 out to 8/1. My other selection INCENTIVISE was just touched-off into 2nd having come to win his race and leading briefly after the final fence. The winner was Money Order trained by Brendan Powell who gave him his 4th winner from 9 runners in the past week – Money Order was his only runner yesterday. Overall, 2pts lost on the day, leaving the monthly balance at 5.925pts in profit.

This month’s selections have been:-
1st Feb, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win @ 8/1 Lost …c/f (1.00pts)
4th Feb, MASTER SOMERVILLE, ½pt eachway @ 18/1 placed 3rd …+1.30pts, c/f +0.30pts
5th Feb, THEATRICAL MOMENT, ½pt eachway @ 13/2 Lost …c/f (0.70pts)
5th Feb, MAKTU, ½pt eachway @ 6/1 Lost …c/f (1.70pts)
9th Feb, STORM SURGE, ½pt eachway @ 9/1 Lost …c/f (2.70pts)
9th Feb, RESTEZEN D’AMOR, ½pt eachway @ 11/2 Lost …c/f (3.70pts)
11th Feb, ALDERBURN, 1pt win @ 14/1 Lost …c/f (4.70pts)
12th Feb, CHANCE DU ROY, 1pt eachway @ 5/1 placed 3rd … nil pts, c/f (4.70pts)
18th Feb, QHILIMAR, 1pt win @ 15/2 WON …+7.50pts, c/f +2.80pts
18th Feb, FRENCH OPERA, 2pts win @ 7/2 WON …+7.00pts, c/f +9.80pts
18th Feb, ZANIR, ½pt eachway @ 20/1 Lost (fell) …c/f +8.80pts
19th Feb, LE BEAU BAI, ½pt eachway @ 9/1 placed 3rd …+0.625pts, c/f +9.425pts
19th Feb, PALYPSO DE CREEK, ½pt eachway @ 11/1 Lost …c/f +8.425pts
22nd Feb, PACCO, 1pt win @ 5/2 Lost …. c/f +7.425pts
24th Feb, BACKFROMTHECONGO, ½pt eachway@ 10/1 placed 2nd …+0.50pts. c/f +7.925pts
25th Feb, KILKENNY ALL STAR, ½pt eachway @ 7/1 Lost …c/f+6.925pts
25th Feb, INCENTIVISE, 1pt win @ 5/2 Lost (2nd) …c/f+5.925pts

2 wins and 4 placed from 17 selections, 19pts staked, ROI (return on investment) = 31.18%

There are jump meetings today at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle, tho’ there is an 8am inspection at Newcastle. Let’s hope the meeting goes ahead and we see the Eider Chase being run. Unusually, every year since 2001, this race has been won by a horse carrying 11st 1lb or more. They are usually all well fancied too – all winners bar one at odds of 11/1 or under. Belon Gale and Giles Cross have to be in the mix – but which one?
There is nothing worth looking at down in Chepstow.
At Kempton we have a great meeting starting off with the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle and this is usually a big pointer for the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival. Next up is the Pendil Novices Chase, and a disappointing turnout of just 4 runners, and if this does not go to Captain Chris then I’m giving up.
The Racing Post Chase h’cap looks a good renewal with Nacarat, Razor Royale and last year’s fav for the race Fistral Beach. The last named looks to have a better chance this year than he did last year, yet he’s at longer odds.

Anyway, that’s it for the month. I’m leaving the blog in profit, and looking forward to Cheltenham.
Here is my antepost portfolio and, I’m happy to say, it’s looking good.

For the Cheltenham Gold Cup
IMPERIAL COMMANDER, 2pts win @ 9/2 (on 22/11/2010, and again on 28/11/2010)
DENMAN, 1pt eachway @ 8/1 (on 28/11/2010)
BURTON PORT ½pt eachway @ 20/1 (on 28/11/2010)
(Note: BURTON PORT is now out for the season)

For the Champion Hurdle
PEDDLERS CROSS, 1pt eachway @ 14/1 (on 27/11/2010)
PEDDLERS CROSS, 1pt win @ 11/2 (on 17/2/2011)
BINOCULAR, 1pt win @ 4/1 (on 17/2/2011)

For the Arkle
GHIZAO 1pt eachway @ 12/1 (on 23/11/2010)
GHIZAO, 1pt win @ 6/1 (on 04/1/2011)

For the QM Champion Chase
FRENCH OPERA, 1pt eachway @ 50/1 (11/2/2011)
GAUVAIN ½pt eachway @ 25/1 (on 15/11/2010)
MASTER MINDED, 1pt win @ 11/4 (on 26/1/2011)
MASTER MINDED, 1pt win @ 5/2 (on 22/2/2011)

For the Ryanair Chase
POQUELIN, 2pts win @ 4/1 (on 18/2/2011)

For the RSA Chase
BOSTONS ANGEL, 1pt eachway @ 16/1 (on 23/2/2011)

Multiple bet advised on 17th Jan 2011
Arkle: GHIZAO @ 6/1
Champion Hurdle: PEDDLERS CROSS @ 6/1
Ryanair: POQUELIN @ 9/2 and RIVERSIDE THEATRE @ 16/1
Gold Cup: IMPERIAL COMMANDER @ 7/2
That is:-
9 x doubles @ ¼pt = 2¼pts
7 x trebles @ ¼pt = 1¾pts
2 x accumulators @ ½pt = 1pt
Total = 5pts staked

Total Antepost wagers stake = 26pts

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Kilkenny All Star to provide and incentive?

The ups & downs of betting in-running were displayed yesterday with the blog selection BACKFROMTHECONGO. On the run-up to the final fence, he looked destined for 3rd place as eventual winner Honourable Arthur looked to have the race in the bag. It all changed in a matter of strides at that final fence where BFTC produced a decent jump to go 2nd, and then Honourable Arthur nearly stopped as he idled in front so badly. This allowed BFTC to plod upsides the leader and he even got his head in front – at this point good money traded at under 1.20 on Betfair on BFTC (touched 1.11). That was the jolt Honourable Arthur needed and he picked-up the bit again and ran on in the final 100 yards to a comfortable win.

The 2nd place from BACKFROMTHECONGO produced a ½pt profit, taking the profit from selections this month to +7.925pts (since 1st Feb).

STARLUCK won his debut novice chase at Huntingdon, but it was not an exhilarating display and it’s unlikely he’ll be in the winners enclosure after the Arkle at the Festival. Take note: AP McCoy has now won on 2 of his last 3 rides for Brendan Powell as he won on Naughty Naughty y’day at 4/1. When he rides for Powell, take note as it usually is a strong pointer.

Its heavy ground at Warwick, and that is not my favourite going. The way I look at it, slow horses run better on heavy going as they are able to run at their normal rhythm without the going affecting them – whereas quicker horses (on better going) have their rhythm disrupted by the going which means they can’t run as economically as they usually do, expend too much energy and so run poorly. The 3m5f h‘cap chase was won last year on heavy going by Lavenoak Lad off 10st with the benefit of a 7lb claimer, meaning he carried just 9st 7lb to victory. He’s on 10st again today, but no claimer rides him; its Colin Bolger. He may go well today, but he’s got no tactical speed so it’ll be a case of the others not going well for him to win. Richard Lee (trainer of Backfromthecongo) has his stable in good form, and INCENTIVISE looks the best bet in this race. Proven at the trip and on the going, he looks capable of defying his OR122 rating. At 5/2 (with Betfred and Will Hill) he looks a decent wager.

At Sandown, the 2-mile class 3 h’cap chase looks an interesting puzzle. I think Dinarius didn’t beat much LTO and has gone up 13lb for that win. This is also a significant drop in trip today and there are others in the race who won’t let him dominate the race (unless he is very good). I don’t think Clouseau will appreciate the soft going, nor will some of the others (Viable, Lorient Express). Lord Singer needs to go left-handed. The last time Top Mark went chasing in July 2009, he looked a decent sort. However, since returning from injury over hurdles this season he’s been a shadow of his former self. An old fav of mine Russian Flag, seems to have lost his way since winning over C&D last February in a class 2 chase beating solid handicapper Consigliere. He’s on a mark 3lb lower than what he won off then, so if he’s in the mood he’s thrown in. But the one I’m on today for this is KILKENNY ALL STAR who is as solid as they come. Soft ground is no problem, the only doubt is going RH here at Sandown, but altho’ he’s not won going RH before he has run some fair races going that way. Throw-in the 5lb claim of his talented jockey Shane Byrne, and at 11/2 with Corals (5th odds a place 1,2,3) he looks a eachway “steal”.

Selection:

Sandown 2:10, KILKENNY ALL STAR, ½pt eachway @ 11/2 (Corals, best odds guaranteed)
Warwick 3:50, INCENTIVISE, 1pt win @ 5/2 (Will Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 2pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Richard Johnson to continue recent good form

We did well to avoid wagers on the couple of horses I mentioned on the blog yesterday as both ran disappointingly.

There was plenty of news regarding the Festival tho’, especially Champion Hurdle hope PEDDLERS CROSS as his regular rider Jason Maguire received a 7-day ban which will prevent him riding on the opening day of the Festival and so he misses the Champion Hurdle. Rumour is he intends to appeal and have the ban reduced (at least), be I am not hopeful on his success. Who will have the ride on PEDDLERS CROSS? The obvious candidate is Graham Lee who - tho’ not having a winner in a hurdle race at Cheltenham in over 5 years - did ride 3 hurdle winners at the 2005 Festival in Inglis Drever, No Refuge and Arcalis.

There was also some chat on twitter about the QM Champion Chase and MASTER MINDED. It was pointed out by Paul Jones (@sportspunter01) author of the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide, that MASTER MINDED did not appreciate the going last March when he ran a disappointing race in the QMCC behind Big Zeb. I pointed out that the previous time he ran on “quick” going he was also beaten, that was when his faced Voy Por Ustedes in the Melling Chase at Aintree. With reports that grass cover is lusher than it has been in recent years at Cheltenham - due perhaps to the good temperatures and rain of recent weeks – I take that as a good sign that MASTER MINDED will have sufficient “give” underfoot to see him at his best come March 16th.

There are two meetings today over the jumps, but nothing excites me at Ayr, so let’s look straight at Huntingdon. High-class hurdler STARLUCK has his debut chase today and if he goes well then he could jump to the head of the Arkle betting market. It is not out of the question that a novice chaser can go into the Arkle and win off a single run – Well Chief did it a few years back – but he’s got to go out and win this and win it well. I liked the improvements to the Weekender this week – and they are not finished yet. From the new racecard layout, I can see that BACKFROMTHECONGO has won 3 times at this 3-mile trip, and he can also handle the soft going. Add that he went well for Richard Johnson LTO, and Johnson has only 2 rides today, and we have the basis of a wager. He also goes well going right-handed (won at Leicester LTO and has run well at Ludlow). Currently 10/1 with Stan James, yet 11/2 in the RP betting forecast, he looks an eachway wager.

Selection:
Huntingdon 4:10, BACKFROMTHECONGO, ½pt eachway (Stan James)
Total = 1pt staked

Festival Antepost Review
We’ve looked at:-
The Ryanair Chase on 18th Feb 2011;
The Arkle & The Champion Hurdle on 17th Feb 2011;
The Queen Mother Champion Chase on 21st Feb 2011.
The RSA (Novice) Chase on 23rd Feb 2011

In my opinion, the Gold Cup is too emotive a race to review. Everyone has their particular favourite, and it’s unlikely that anything I write (or anyone else for that matter) will affect how readers of this blog will place their wagers. As such, I will look through the programme for the Festival and see if there is another race that offers some antepost value.

The revised Weekender has already been referred to, but I am always drawn to the column written by Nick Mordin, and he plugs a rating service that I myself have valued for a long time – Racing Post Ratings. It must be 8 years since I first plugged RPR’s as consistent and reliable ratings on a forum run by Oddschecker. I always use them as the first point of reference, and tho I do not always agree with them, they are the backbone of my selection process.

Lastly, a plus for another blog that hit the back of the net yesterday – Sprinterstogo (see adjacent link). Resident writer “The Laird” came up with a 4-horse shortlist that produced a Tricast worth £1,573. If you’d put on a combination tricast of his shortlist to just a 20p stake (24 bets) your total wager would have been £4.80 and you’d have recouped over £314.00 – not bad.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

SUPER KENNY to the rescue!

Some you win, and some you lose. That’s how it went yesterday.
As I said, the only thing preventing me from putting SHOREACRES up as a selection yesterday was his odds. At the time he was 15/8, and he eventually started at 7/4. I managed to obtain 3.40 (about 9/4) in-running to small money but it wasn’t enough. Perhaps I was being hard on myself as the horse ran out a very convincing winner, coming home 28-length clear of the 8/15 fav trained by Paul Nicholls. Be sure to put the name of SHOREACRES in your notebook. He could go into the Festival on a very handy chasing rating.
By contrast, I considered the blog selection PACCO as good value at 5/2, and he drifted to 7/2 on-course (touched 6.20 or 5/1 on Betfair), but he never got into the race. There were a couple of fences omitted and he was caught flat-footed when the leaders quickened away with under a mile to go. The effort of getting back on terms told in the sticky going, and he was never going to catch the eventual winner – Pak Jak – who was winning for the first time since January 2005.

As such, the blog dropped a point to stand at +7.425pts profit for the month (since 1st Feb).

The racing at Ludlow and Doncaster looks dire, and I’m not tempted to make a wager. That said, OFFSHORE ACCOUNT can run very well when fit enough to do himself justice – was 4th in William Hill Trophy H’cap at the Festival last March to Chief Dan George off OR135, and that makes him easily the most talented horse in this hunter chase at Doncaster at 4:40.
At Ludlow, Nicky Henderson sends 2 runners and it’s SUPER KENNY who looks the most tempting at 5/1 for the 3:50 class 3 hurdle – but has he improved his hurdling? If he has, then he could scoot home in this.

Festival Antepost Review
We’ve looked at:-
The Ryanair Chase on 18th Feb 2011;
The Arkle & The Champion Hurdle on 17th Feb 2011;
The Queen Mother Champion Chase on 21st Feb 2011.

For races such as the Supreme Novices Hurdle which opens the Festival, and the Neptune Hurdle; I find its best to wait until you know the actual runners taking part before having a wager. It is not unusual for trainers to double-enter their stable hopes and not decide the final target until the weekend before the Festival. This is not the case with the RSA Chase (Novice) Chase over 3m 1f.

The RSA (Novice) Chase
Of the previous 11 winners, 9 were 7yo. Add to that 12 of the last 20 winners had won over 3-miles (or more) and that all the previous 11 winners had run at least 3 times over fences; this is a race in which experience counts, not potential ability. In fact racing experience in general is important as 16 of the last 18 winners have had at least nine NH starts.
From the fav (Time For Rupert) going out:-
Time For Rupert: 11 runs incl 2 chases; won at 24f
Jessies Dream: 8 runs incl 5 chases; not won at 24f
1833: 6 runs incl 2 chases; won at 24f
Wymott: 7 runs incl 3 chases; won at 24f
Wayward Prince: 7 runs incl 3 chases; won at 24f
Wishfull Thinking: 9 runs incl 4 chases; not won at 24f
Bostons Angel: 11 runs incl 3 chases; won at 24f
Magnanimity: 10 runs incl 4 chases; not won at 24f
Master Of The Hall looks to be a right-hand track specialist. As for Wishful Thinking, he has bags of class (beat Grand Crus no less giving him 6lb and a 7-length beating only 12-months ago), but he’s yet to show he stays the 3-mile-plus trip. Take out the others that have not yet won at 3-mile (Jessies Dream and Magnanimity) and we are down to a shortlist of 5. You cannot fault Time For Rupert, but his odds of just 5/2 leave no scope for error. For no reason other than the market, I am looking towards BOSTONS ANGEL at 16/1 and WAYWARD PRINCE at 12/1. I think WAYWARD PRINCE would have beaten Chicago Grey (had the latter not fallen 2-out) and so he’s not far short of Time For Rupert who is 8lb better than Chicago Grey. BOSTONS ANGEL won the best RSA/Arkle trial race of recent years LTO and he ticks all the boxes in terms of experience and ability.

Selection:
The RSA Chase on 16th March 2011
BOSTONS ANGEL, 1pt eachway @ 16/1 (available generally)

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Decent value at Wetherby

Many thanks again for the recent comments and general response to the blog.
Not a good day for me personally yesterday. Without a firm selection for the day, I tried to play the exchanges with a “back-to-lay” strategy – and after an early success, it all went wrong and I lost a fair wedge. Worse, was that I had the opportunity to “trade-out” for a tiny profit, but hung on waiting (hoping) for the horse my money was wagered on to make its move – it didn’t.
As such, fingers well and truly burned.

We are starting to enter that “twilight zone” before the Cheltenham Festival when racing becomes fairly dull. Horses with Festival objectives are not likely to be tempted onto the racecourse now.

There are a couple of meetings, at Taunton and Wetherby.
At Taunton, my interest is in the first race at 2:00, a novice chase over 2m3f. Normally, I give novice chasers a miss until they’ve had a run, but in this we have a potentially decent chaser in SHOREACRES. He was 7th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle won by Go Native in 2009, and then went chasing last season. He had 3 runs without winning (hence still a novice) and looks up to going close in this. He has plenty of useful form as a hurdler in addition to the run at the 2009 Festival, and when AP McCoy is in the saddle for Brendan Powell it usually means they are serious. The only reason I am not putting him up as a selection is that with just 5 runners and Paul Nicholls supplying the odds-on Qozak, current best-odds of 15/8 (Stan James) are not generous enough, and you are unlikely to get much better. If he were 7/2, then I may reconsider.

At Wetherby, the class 3 h’cap chase over 3m1f looks set to go to PACCO now that Sweden is a non-runner. The soft going and trip are no problem to him, whereas Quattrocento has never won on soft from 8 tries, and Pak Jak has never won from 12 races on good-to-soft or worse going. Much can be said of the rest of the field, and so PACCO at 5/2 looks decent value.

Selection:
Wetherby 3:15, PACCO, 1pt win @ 5/2 (Will Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 1pt staked

Festival Antepost Review
We’ve looked at:-
The Ryanair Chase on 18th Feb 2011;
The Arkle & The Champion Hurdle on 17th Feb 2011.

The QM Champion Chase
So far, I’ve put up 3 selections for this race:-
MASTER MINDED, 1pt win @ 11/4 (on 26/1/2011);
FRENCH OPERA, 1pt eachway @ 50/1 (11/2/2011);
GAUVAIN ½pt eachway @ 25/1 (on 15/11/2010).
I must have had a bit of a turn when putting-up Gauvain, as he has looked nothing like a Champion Chase contender since the Autumn. French Opera did me proud last Friday at Newbury winning the Game Spirit, and I think that was one of the best 2-mile performances we’ve seen this season. That honour goes to MASTER MINDED when winning the Tingle Creek and I think were it not for his poor run in the QMCC last year, then he’d be odds-on for this year’s renewal. For me, Big Zeb looked immense when winning this last season, but he can be caught flat-footed on the run-in (as he was LTO by Golden Silver). Also, the proximity of Carthalawn rated OR149 and Scotsirish rated OR152 in recent races suggests that the form in Ireland isn’t as strong as it should be. Beating Sizing Europe by 7-lengths LTO does not look great form either, as that horse has been running poorly all season. At the open day at Ditcheat yesterday, Paul Nicholls was full of confidence about MASTER MINDED and as such I’m having another 1pt win on at 5/2 (available generally).

Selections:
Queen Mother Champion Chase on 16th March 2011
MASTER MINDED, 1pt win @ 5/2 with Victor Chandler

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Some answers to some questions

Many thanks for the comments and general response to the good performance of the blog selections.

To answer some of the comments (see previous blog post):-
To Anthony at Nose Ahead (http://noseahead.blogspot.com), the reason I didn’t go for Skippers Brig on Saturday (and believe me, he was the first horse I was drawn to in the race) was due to what I wrote about him on my Alert List narrative (see adjacent column). "Altho’ he has won at 3-miles, it was only a 4-horse race on heavy (which he handles) and SKIPPERS BRIG was top-rated in the race and merely had to complete to win. Personally, I don’t think he stays 3-mile as in his other 3 attempts at the trip he’s been well beaten. Returned to 20f NTO, he easily put the race to bed, winning comfortably.” Clearly, I got that wrong. The horse did run a brilliant race in the Boylesports last season (came 3rd), but generally Nicky Richards has an awful record when he travels more than 100 miles with his horses, so I won’t expect it to follow-up at the Festival.

To The Laird at Sprinterstogo (see adjacent blog link), my opinion of the National fences is that they are not as fearsome as they appear and those that fall are usually running into the fences too quickly and tip-over. Even so, a heavy going specialist like Silver By Nature is a slugger not a speed merchant, and I feel he will be tailed-off by midway.

To James at Gift Horse Investments, I have added a link to your blog (and I’ve done the same for Nose Ahead). As you asked for the link James, I expect a reciprocal arrangement with a link to this blog on your site. I do review my blogs-list every week, and I do read them – I don’t just “collect” them. If you stop blogging, or if the content ceases to be your own independent opinion, then I will delete the link from my blog-list.

Lastly, Westhill Lad; thanks for the compliments. My form study revolves around use of the RP website mainly, with use of the ATR and Sportinglife video’s (Sportinglife provide RUK videos for free). I only buy the Weekender, and I trawl thru’ the results section noting decent performances. Generally, I look for younger horses on the way up the handicap. I make notes of performances, and I review races I’ve had a wager in whether I win or lose. I am not sentimental about horses, so I will not follow any horse on a long losing run. I try and find out as much information as possible using every available source, the internet, twitter, racing papers, betfair forums. For instance, I learned today that last week DENMAN had a breathing op. Don’t know about you, but that may not be good news. Paul Nicholls gives many of his horses breathing op’s and they are not all successful. I also use a horse-alert reminder system provided by www.easyodds.com as it is free.

There are no selections for today’s horseracing.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Skippers Brig wins for Alert List at 12/1

Another good day for the blog – someone should be paying me to write this!

LE BEAU BAI performed best of the 2 selections, staying-on to be 3rd in the Grand National Trial to Silver By Nature. Advised at 9/1, the place at ¼ odds returned a 0.625pt profit for 1pt eachway staked. He ran his usual race, being outpaced mid-race but staying-on strong in the final mile. He is a great place-bet in-running. Silver By Nature is being aimed at the Grand National but, unless the going comes up soft or worse, he’s likely to get outpaced and not be able to peg-back the leaders in that race.
The other selection PALYPSO DE CREEK was disappointing and ran unplaced. The race was won by another off my Horse Alert List SKIPPERS BRIG who I overlooked as I thought he would not stay this 3-mile on the heavy ground. You have to take an interest in any of Nicky Richards runners in the North, beyond that ignore them as they don’t travel well – the stats don’t lie.

This month’s selections – record so far:-
1st Feb, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win @ 8/1 Lost …c/f (1.00pts)
4th Feb, MASTER SOMERVILLE, ½pt eachway @ 18/1 placed 3rd …+1.30pts, c/f +0.30pts
5th Feb, THEATRICAL MOMENT, ½pt eachway @ 13/2 Lost …c/f (0.70pts)
5th Feb, MAKTU, ½pt eachway @ 6/1 Lost …c/f (1.70pts)
9th Feb, STORM SURGE, ½pt eachway @ 9/1 Lost …c/f (2.70pts)
9th Feb, RESTEZEN D’AMOR, ½pt eachway @ 11/2 Lost …c/f (3.70pts)
11th Feb, ALDERBURN, 1pt win @ 14/1 Lost …c/f (4.70pts)
12th Feb, CHANCE DU ROY, 1pt eachway @ 5/1 placed 3rd … nil pts, c/f (4.70pts)
18th Feb, QHILIMAR, 1pt win @ 15/2 WON …+7.50pts, c/f +2.80pts
18th Feb, FRENCH OPERA, 2pts win @ 7/2 WON …+7.00pts, c/f +9.80pts
18th Feb, ZANIR, ½pt eachway @ 20/1 Lost (fell) …c/f +8.80pts
19th Feb, LE BEAU BAI, ½pt eachway @ 9/1 placed 3rd …+0.625pts, c/f +9.425pts
19th Feb, PALYPSO DE CREEK, ½pt eachway @ 11/1 Lost, …c/f +8.425pts

This is the best set of monthly results for the blog so far this jumps season, and I’m really looking forward to what could be a spectacular Cheltenham Festival for the blog. Take a look at some of the antepost selections (see adjacent page):-
The Arkle:
GHIZAO advised at 12/1, now best-priced at 9/2
Champion Hurdle:
PEDDLERS CROSS advised at 14/1, now best-priced at 11/2
QM Champion Chase:
FRENCH OPERA advised at 50/1, now best-priced at 25/1
The Ryanair:
RIVERSIDE THEATRE advised at 16/1, now best-priced at 7/1

The win yesterday by RIVERSIDE THEATRE was marred by the death of Pride Of Dulcote. As such, his performance was only matching his previous efforts, in my opinion. He did however confirm his fitness and well-being, and altho’ there is speculation that Aintree or Punchestown are on the agenda, there is only one Cheltenham Festival and he may never again be in this sort of form with just under 3 weeks to go.

Dunguib won a 3-runner affair in Ireland, beating Luska Lad by 3½ lengths but in 3rd was Gimli’s Rock who is rated OR139. This downgrades the performance, which I make about 155, and that’s just not good enough to win a Champion Hurdle.

I will update my Horse Alert List results and post up a revised set of results sometime during Sunday.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Two winners yesterday & 13.50pts profit

Get in there!
What a day, with 2 winners from the 3 selections provided, including the 2pt win on FRENCH OPERA. What a ride he was given by Barry Geraghty, he took the race apart. I advised taking the 50/1 on offer from Corals for the Champion Chase (see my antepost advices page) last Saturday morning, and boy has this come good. By my reckoning, that was one of the best 2-mile performances we’ve seen this season. I would say only Master Minded has bettered it when winning the Tingle Creek last December at Cheltenham. As Geraghty will not desert Big Zeb, someone is up for one helluva spare ride!
That was followed up by QHILIMAR, who I advised at 15/2 in the morning (I just missed 8’s from Corals) and who eventually started at an SP of 4/1. He got up to win on the line, but they all count. If you read my Alert List I even suggested how to play the race. The horse hit his usual flat spot, and touched 25’s plus in-running on Betfair as they jumped the “railway” fences, but then he stayed-on like a good’un.
The other selection ZANIR fell when 4th 2-out, but he was not enjoying the very soft going and would not have been placed had he finished.
So, that was 13.50pts profit on the day taking the blog into 8.80pts profit for the month.

The winning selections received a good reception on twitter, and some suggested they’d put them in double and trebles, so good results all round. Remember, I don’t charge for this blog it is free-to-view. So, if you have benefitted from today and you want to share some of your winnings with the writer of this blog and reward his efforts, make a donation. You would not think much of leaving a 10% tip for a good meal.

There are 3 good meetings today at Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton.
With such a lot of quality racing the objective is to find 1 or 2 solid performers that you can rely on – you cannot hope to try and find the winner in every race.
At Ascot, Riverside Theatre should win the Ascot Chase over this 2m5f if he’s as good as they say (I don’t think he is). Personally, I hope he is but at 7/4 in this quality field he is no value at all.
The heavy going at Haydock will be tough for all contestants, especially in the National Trial chase over 3m4f. SILVER BY NATURE is one of the few horses to beat the now retired Our Vic on heavy going when winning this last year. But he only carried 10st 11lb then and he’s got 11st 12lb today. As such, altho’ I think SBS will run well, I am going for LE BEAU BAI who loves heavy going and has been running really well this season without winning. He drops to OR137 today which is 2lb less than his last winning chase mark of OR139 when he won on heavy at Cheptstow in Dec’09. At 9/1 there is no fat in his odds, so if you can get longer odds take them. My wager of the day is in the next race, a 3-mile h’cap hurdle. It’s from the Horse Alert List and he won for us the other week, its PALYPSO DE CREEK. The trip and going are no problem at all, and he should be full of confidence from his hurdle win 2 weeks ago. Currently at 11/1, that is huge for a horse with his potential ability running off OR132 as I think he is possibly a OR145+ chaser.
The meeting at Wincanton hosts the Kingwell Hurdle and it looks a decent renewal. Mille Chief needs to win if he has serious Champion Hurdle pretensions, but at just 7/4 as I write, I’ll use my money elsewhere.

Selections:
Haydock 3:20, LE BEAU BAI, ½pt eachway 9/1 – available generally, best odds guaranteed.
Haydock 3:55, PALYPSO DE CREEK, ½pt eachway 11/1 – available generally, best odds guaranteed.
Total = 2pts staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

French Opera to take centre stage

Let’s start off with a couple of “high-fives” for bloggers who have really hit the back of the net this week, and their information is available to all and costs readers nothing!
TheBlogWinningPost (see adjacent link) is fairly new on the blogging scene, but resident writer Tom Castle came up with a 33/1 winner yesterday from his only selection in MARINGO BAY which he posted-up mid-morning yesterday and also advertised on twitter. This was no “pin-stickers” guide – his reasons were well written and thought-out. A brilliant effort and a man readers should pay attention to.
Sprinterstogo (see adjacent link) is a blog I have advised of before and resident writer “The Laird” knows his stuff when it comes to finding winners amongst the sprint races in the UK. Last Saturday from his only selection he found 14/1 winner GARSTANG, and followed that up yesterday with SHAWKANTANGO at 2/1. He doesn’t post many selections on his blog (2 or 3 a week) but when he does, take note! Back in Oct-Now, he had 5 winners (with one at 8/1) from 6 selections over a couple of weeks.
With free information of this quality on the “net” why buy a racing paper, and why pay professional tipsters for their advice. Most punters I know want to have a wager 2 or 3 times a week, not every day, and they’d rather be on a horse running at decent odds than having £40 of “hard-earned” on a 6/4 fav.

Great meetings today at Sandown and Newbury, with a supporting meeting at Fakenham.
At Sandown, there is a terrific h’cap chase at 2:40 over 3m1½f. Charlie Longsdon has his team in tip-top form and today’s race is perfect for QHILIMAR who is also on the Horse Alert List. This is a very competitive race, but I feel that QHILIMAR is much better than his current rating of OR122 as, on a line thru’ the consistent Sound Stage he is 16lb well-in with Buffalo Bob. We’ve missed the early value, but QHILIMAR is well worth a 1pt win wager at 15/2 for this.

Saturday’s Newbury card is replayed today.
The grade 2 Aon chase should be a walkover for What A Friend now that Riverside Theatre does not run in it. FRENCH OPERA lines-up for the Game Spirit chase at 1:15 and he was a 2pt win bet for this last Saturday, and I’ve not changed my opinion since. He’s even better odds now at 100/30 with Bet365 – lump on! Lastly, ZANIR was my selection on Saturday for the Totesport hurdle and I’ve not changed my opinion, but it’s now only 1-2-3 a place with just 15-runners and he’s 20/1. I’ll go eachway again.

Selections:
Sandown 2:40, QHILIMAR, 1pt win @ 15/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Newbury 1:15, FRENCH OPERA, 2pts win @ 100/30 (Bet365, best odds guaranteed)
Newbury 1:50, ZANIR, ½pt eachway @ 20/1 (Corals, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 4pts staked

The Ryanair Chase
Continuing my antepost review of the coming Festival, the Ryanair looks a real betting opportunity. Last year’s 2nd POQUELIN stands head & shoulders above those entered for this on known form. He won LTO, repeating his win in the grade 3 “Gold Cup” h’cap at Cheltenham in December. He looks a better horse this season than last whereas others he met then such as J’y Vole and Albertas Run, have gone backwards. Somersby goes for the Champion Chase, stablemate The Nightingale is seriously over-rated by the handicapper on OR167, and that makes doubtful stayer Kalahari King on OR162 next-best on official ratings, a full 8lb inferior to consistent POQUELIN. At 4/1, POQUELIN is one of my bankers of the week and he should start shorter than his 11/4 odds for the race last year. I know I’ve put Riverside Theatre in my multiple bet for the Festival, but that’s cos I think he’ll be 2nd to POQUELIN and the 16’s on offer then (for Riverside Theatre) were too good to pass-up.

Selections:
Ryanair Chase on 17th March 2011
POQUELIN, 2pts win @ 4/1 with William Hill (best odds guaranteed)

More of the Cheltenham Festival markets tomorrow.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

A Fly in the ointment

Many thanks for all the kind and generous messages of support for the blog yesterday, via twitter and on the blog. I took 220.0 on TARANIS (via Betfair) for the Grand National yesterday, and he's now down to 170.0.

There are meetings at Ffos Las and Kelso today – but all eyes will focus on the performance of PEDDLERS CROSS at Kelso this afternoon.

In this race last year, Zaynar was beaten at odds of 1/14 by the 12/1 Quwetwo. Will it happen again today? I doubt it even tho’ PEDDLERS CROSS is “only” 2/11 today, and there is nothing in opposition with the potential of Quwetwo. My opinion is that Zaynar was defeated by the extreme travelling distance from Lambourn to Kelso of about 300 miles. PEDDLERS CROSS travels over 200 miles from Donald McCains yard in Cheshire, but McCain has a healthy strike rate here (10 from 74, 14%) so he knows how to ensure horses travel well.

Again, it’s a day without promise on the betting front. Yesterday, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES was a non-runner, but I was on-the-ball with Donald Will Do in the same race. I said he wasn’t a real 3-miler and he showed that yesterday. Leading till 4-out, he lost the lead then and tho’ “ridden” he found nothing and plodded on to be a well-beaten 2nd. This was a weak race as the winner One More Dinar was winning his 1st race under rules. The blog remains “down” 4.70pts for the month.

So, as promised yesterday, a review of some of the antepost markets for the Festival.

The Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
Finian’s Rainbow disappointed with some deliberate jumping last Saturday and really should not now be 9/2 joint-fav. Medermit won well LTO at Sandown, but what puts me off him is that in 5 races at Cheltenham, he’s never won. In his other 13 races, all on flat tracks (RP description) - other than Exeter and Plumpton – he’s won 6 times! I cannot fault GHIZAO who has been my idea of the winner for a long time. I note that Noble Prince has yet to be withdrawn (trainer says target is another race at Festival), and I would not be surprised if he lines up in the Arkle as it looks a weak renewal on paper lacking depth.

The Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
We will know a bit more by 5pm today about this race.
No matter which way I look at the formbook, I cannot have Menorah in this, unless it is a slower Champion Hurdle than normal. That said, I’m not sure where the pace will come from as Binocular needs plenty, and it may be that Henderson will sacrifice one of his horses to set a searing gallop. Hurricane Fly could be a real “fly in the ointment” if he’s as good as his supporters think. Thing is, I don’t, as I have him about 164 at best and that rating is flimsy. He’s only run on good going (over hurdles) or quicker, twice – all his other runs have been on soft/heavy going. His best win on “good” being when winning the Irish Champion Hurdle at Punchestown last April. With the handicapper Thousand Stars only a couple of lengths back in 3rd, that was not remarkable form.
I’m on PEDDLERS CROSS at 14’s and I’m happy with that, but Sporting Odds go 4/1 about BINOCULAR today and I’m going to have a 1pt “saver” on him at those odds and another 1pt on PEDDLERS CROSS at 11/2.

Selections:
Champion Hurdle on 15th March 2011
BINOCULAR, 1pt win @ 4/1 with Sportingodds
PEDDLERS CROSS, 1pt win @ 11/2 with William Hill

More of the Cheltenham Festival markets tomorrow.

Before I write-off, Paul Jones of Weatherby’s stated via twitter today that almost half of all handicap hurdle winners (at the Cheltenham Festival) won last time out since 1993 (27/55) from approx 20% representation. If you refer to my Festival stats guide (see adjacent pages) you will also read that 35 of the last 40 Handicap Hurdle winners carried no more than 11st 3lb. Combine those 2 stats and you have the basis for a very short, shortlist.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Will Paul Nicholls win the National with this horse at 50/1

Recent horseracing hasn’t been up to much and, at periods like this, I find it difficult to motivate myself to analyse the racing on offer. I’ve been thinking about where to go next with the blog as, despite my efforts utilising twitter (on which I have over 400 followers, and a lot are horseracing fans) and regular daily updates of the blog, some days I don’t get more than 100 site visits.
A few months ago (Sept/Oct) the blog was hitting new highs in visitor stats nearly every week but, since the snows came before Xmas, visitor numbers have dropped about 40% and now average about 150 a day. As a lot of the visits are less than a second in duration (must be something to do with web-search software) I reckon that there are probably less than 50 regular readers at the moment – maybe even less than that.
As such, I’ve decided to keep the blog going till after the Grand National meeting in April and then I may change the theme of the blog.
From a personal point of view, I get a lot of satisfaction in interpreting the antepost markets and punting on the major handicaps, and that is probably the way I will go with just a weekly blog update during the summer months.
I have lost my love of the flat racing season in recent years, as horses don’t seem to run as much anymore, nor “mature”. I remember (during the 1970’s & 80’s) that you could follow a decent 2yo thru’ its 3yo season and then onwards as a 4yo and 5yo as it matured into a solid handicapper. Nowadays, a whole host of horse’s in the OR90 – OR110 range seem to disappear abroad (Hong Kong? South Africa?), not to mention those in the OR70 – OR89 range that become hurdlers. As such, as a punter/spectator of horseracing, I don’t build-up a relationship with the horses that compete on the Flat as I do with those competing over the Jumps.

I’ll be reviewing my Cheltenham Antepost Portfolio today and will advise of any adjustments to that portfolio tomorrow.

There is no news about the deaths of the horses at Newbury last Saturday, and that (IMO) suggests that an explanation is a lot more difficult to find than was first thought.

The Grand National weights were published yesterday, and what great reading they make. I have had tremendous good luck in the race with “gut-reading” of the entries, going back to Maori Venture in 1987 (obtained 50/1 antepost, and it won at 28/1) and culminating in Mon Mome at 100/1 (told everyone who would listen, and posted a thread on Betfair on the Tuesday before the race and again on the morning of the race). Having looked at the list of runners, one horse immediately caught my eye being a Grade 1 chase winner, having won 2 of his 5 starts over 3-mile, and who races off a mark 3lb less than his last win which was in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase – TARANIS who is 50/1 as I write and will carry the magical weight of “11 stone”.

From the Horse Alert List comes ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES for the 2m7½f h’cap chase today at Leicester. Dropped 4lb from his last poor effort to OR84, he wears a visor for the 1st time. This is his visit to the “last chance saloon”. If he can repeat the form of his win over 3-mile at Huntingdon last season off OR88 then he will easily take this race apart. Currently 20/1, I’d rather have an ew punt on him than the fav Donald Will Do who is 11/2 who has only won once from 31 chase starts and, while that win was at Leicester (where he’s run 11 times), it was over 2m4f 110yards. The last few times he’s run over 21f+, he’s been tailed-off (08Nov10); tailed-off (18May10); well btn 2-out (14May10); tailed-off 4-out (19Feb10) – that’s not my idea of a fav for this race over nearly 3-miles.

The blog remains “down” 4.70pts for the month.
No selections today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Sinister explanation for Newbury tragedy?

The events of Saturday at Newbury are difficult to describe. Not being there, I have only been able to watch the video footage available on the internet, and it looks freakish. I think it was trainer Nicky Henderson who said afterwards that it was like something from a Dick Francis novel. How can it be that only horses were affected when the parade ring was full of people? And only some of the horses at that? Is there a more sinister explanation, the use by a spectator of some sort of stun gun?
I’ve worked in construction for 30 years and I’ve witnessed some incredible events and accidents: crawler cranes flying thru’ the air, scaffold collapses (with multiple fatalities), and a steel-fixer suddenly falling to the ground bleeding profusely from the leg, and later learning when he arrived at hospital that he had a bullet in his leg (I was working on the Chinese/Hong Kong border at the time). I myself escaped almost certain death when a full bag of cement was thrown from a high-rise building under construction and it landed about 3 metres from me. As such, I know that if an accident can happen, it will happen. But, from what I’ve seen, the death of the horses at Newbury is beyond explanation.

The blog remains “down” 4.70pts after the only selection to run on Saturday – CHANCE DU ROY – was 3rd at 5/1 (5th odds a place). I should have stuck with my initial thought of Hey Big Spender as he won at 17/2. He’s recently been campaigned over 3-mile or more and I thought this drop in trip to 2m4½f would not suit but, having reviewed again his form, this is his best trip. He’s now won 4 of his 7 starts between 2m4f and 2m6½f, yet of his 5 starts at 3-mile and further he’s won once and that was a fairly weak race. He’s being aimed at the 3-mile Racing Post Chase, but he would not be my idea of the winner on form.

Finian’s Rainbow won on Saturday, but looked a fortunate winner. His jumping was deliberate at times, and I am more than happy with the couple of antepost wagers I have on GHIZAO at 12/1 and again at 6/1

I advised a 1pt eachway antepost wager on FRENCH OPERA for the QMCC at 50/1 with Corals, as I fully expected him to win the Game Spirit Chase on Saturday, but that race was lost due to the abandonment of racing.

In Ireland, the PJ Moriarty saw the end of Mikael D’Haguenet’s Festival bid this season. Still a novice chaser, he is not the best at his new trade and I think we’ll see him retired for the season to protect his novice status now. Kempes won the Hennessey Gold Cup and put a final nail in the hopes of Joncol. Kempes has now won both times he’s finished at 3-mile (unseated his rider in the Lexus) and looks every inch a top-staying chaser. He must now come into Gold Cup calculations.

No selections today.

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

French Opera to sing for his supper

Sometimes when I look back at results I think that perhaps I should not have been so greedy and gone for the speculative “big-one” and just gone for the solid “easy money”. That happened yesterday in the race at Kempton that I reviewed and made my selection in. The 2/1 joint-fav was Plein Pouvior who is also on my Alert List (see adjacent pages). As I wrote yesterday, the horse does not stay a yard further than 21f and y’days race was over 3-mile. Throw-in that from 8 previous starts on good-to-soft or better going the horse had never finished in the 1st-3 and it was most unlikely that he was going to win – in fact, he was probably a place-lay in the 7-runner contest with only the 1st-2 places up for grabs. He never got into the race and actually lost 3rd-place after the final fence to come home 4th of the 6 starters (there was a non-runner). It was an easy place-lay and one of my twitter contacts was able to “place-lay” at 1.78 on Betfair. Instead, I went for the big one and chose ALDERBURN and he was unable to match the pace of eventual winner Carrickmines (who, as I wrote y’day, loves 3-mile and has now won 4 of his 5 starts at that trip) but stayed-on to be 3rd.
As I expected, Punchestowns won y’day at 4/6. Not great odds, but a winner is a winner. Punchestowns has now won all 6 of his starts at 2m5f or less, but has only won 1 of his 7 starts at trips greater than 2m5f. He’s also won only once from 6 starts at Cheltenham, but has won 6 of his 7 starts away from that track – very interesting. The Grade 1, Melling Chase over 2m4f at Aintree looks right up his street so let’s hope he gives the Festival a miss.

The blog is down 4.70pts this month, so the pressure is on to recover some, if not all, of the deficit. There are 3 meetings on at Ayr, Newbury and Warwick.

At Warwick, Arkle fav Finian’s Rainbow has only 3 rivals in the “Kingmaker” but he should know he’s been in a race afterwards. The h’cap chase at 2:10 brings together a useful field. I was initially drawn to top-weight Hey Big Spender, as he is capable of winning off this mark, but the trip is probably on the short side for him. Most of these are badly handicapped on recent form, and there is only one to go for in the circumstances and that’s CHANCE DU ROY, who is 5/1 a very generous price.

At Ayr, nothing much takes my eye, tho’ DIAMOND FRONTIER has conditions to his liking in the 3:20 class 3 h’cap chase. Course specialist Quicuyo will take some beating, but he allows DIAMOND FRONTIER to go off at better odds than he should. Even so, 9/4 is a bit on the short side for me and I’d want 3/1 at least. If you can get that, take advantage.

Newbury is the day’s top meeting in the UK. I want to oppose Riverside Theatre in the Aon Chase, but with what? I’ll be either proved right or wrong today, but my reading of the King George on Boxing Day was that Kauto Star was well-off his best and finished exhausted. As such, I rated Riverside Theatre at 159 (PB) with Long Run on 168. If I’m right, then What A Friend is his equal on ratings but the 4lb extra he carries may just nobble him. It all depends on whether Riverside Theatre really stays 3-mile, or was he flattered LTO?
Here’s a Cheltenham Festival tip!
Take the odds about FRENCH OPERA now for the QMCC for which he’s 50/1 with Corals as after he wins the Game Spirit Chase, he will be no longer than 10/1 for the big one. He is easily better than any in this race and I thought he’d be Henderson’s QMCC horse after the last Festival and I still do.
The Totesport Trophy is one of the betting handicaps of the season, and ZANIR did us proud LTO. He was tipped in the Weekender this week when at 40/1. He’s best at 28/1 today, but I’d take 25’s with a firm offering best-odds-guaranteed, such as Chandlers of Corals. Paddy Brennan takes the ride and that suggests the horse has a real chance in a race that will give him the pace he needs.

Selections:
Warwick 2:10, CHANCE DU ROY, 1pt eachway @ 5/1 (Vic Chander, best odds guaranteed)
Newbury 3:00 FRENCH OPERA, 2pts win @ 3/1 (Vic Chander, best odds guaranteed)
Newbury 3:35 ZANIR, ½pt eachway @ 25/1 (Vic Chander, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 5pts staked

Antepost
Queen Mother Champion Chase
FRENCH OPERA, 1pt eachway @ 50/1 with Corals

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Redemption for Punchestowns?

We have a half-decent meeting at Kempton today, with another at Musselburgh in Scotland.

Nicky Henderson is a man to be on the right side of at Kempton with stats of 58 winners from 192 runners in past 5 years, and in chases he’s even stronger with 21 wins from 64 runners (33%). He sends a chasing debutant here today for the 2:05 a beginners chase for horses yet to win a chase race, called ZAZAMIX. It is a tough induction to chasing, but if Henderson is sending the horse here then he clearly holds him in high regard. He runs Punchestowns later in the afternoon as well, and if the horse can’t win this then connections will really be scratching their heads. Unfortunately, the odds are not great at 8/11 for a horse who can “drop a leg”, but he should win comfortably.

The Horse Alert List has a runner in recent winner Plein Pouvior, but today’s race is over 3-mile and the horse does not stay this sort of trip. As I wrote in my Horse Alert list narrative, Plein Pouvior needs a trip less than 22f and the word “soft” in the description. He’s run 5 times beyond 21f and never won or looked capable of staying the trip, so on that basis I reckon he can be safely opposed. Of the others, Soixante doesn’t look like he’ll stay 3 mile either; whereas top-weight ALDERBURN loves 3-mile and good going, he’s also a C&D winner. Carrickmines also loves 3-mile, but would prefer soft/heavy and is still 5lb above his last winning mark. Rory Boy and Fortification are both out of form and Ravethebrave is also untried at 3-mile and his rating (OR129) seems high to me. ALDERBURN won on 23rd October and comes here just 2lb higher for that win. He is very consistent and odds of 14/1 for this race look extremely generous to me given the question-marks over the others in the race and that it fits ALDERBURN to a tee.

I want to get this blog off and posted. So I am not looking at any other races today.

Selection:
Kempton 4:20, ALDERBURN, 1pt win @ 14/1 (Vic Chander, best odds guaranteed)
There are only 7 runners in this race, so eachway is not really an option.
Total = 1pt staked

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad

Another from the Alert List

Not a great day yesterday.
I was right about about both of the morning fav’s in each race I reviewed. In the Carlisle race, Duke Of Malfi made it 5 visits to Carlisle without a win, but it was more the going that did for him. He has won on heavy going only once from 10m starts now – take heed. My selection STORM SURGE never looked like being involved and when impeded by the falling horse 3-out he was done for.

At Ludlow, the morning fav Shadow Dancer looked a complete rogue and should be ignored from now on. Even so, my selection RESTEZEN D’AMOR was unable to get involved despite travelling very strongly to 4-out which he met all wrong and was lucky to stay upright. That he battled-on says something for his resolution and this 6yo will have better days ahead.

As such, that’s 2pts lost on the day, which means I’m 3.70pts down this month.

At Huntingdon today, in the 2:10, from the Alert List runs CESIUM. He is dropped in trip from 23f to this more suitable extended 20f, and the ‘good’ going will suit him too. He has won going RH (at Leicester) and altho’ he was disappointing when running in this race last year, he was dropped-out the back which were tactics that didn’t suit. He won his next race when reverting to more aggressive tactics, and he could do well at long odds here.

There is nothing at Taunton that excites me, so I will give that meeting a miss

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
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THE KNOXS looks decent prospect

We did well avoiding posting a selection yesterday, even tho’ I did favourably discuss the chances of THE KNOXS who won at “evens”. He gave supporters a scare tho’ with a bad error at the final fence that very nearly brought him down. That he was able to get back and win handsomely shows he is a potentially very good chaser. I also advised not to overlook LIGHTENING ROD in the same race, and he looked to hold every chance before also making a mistake at the final fence alongside THE KNOXS, but he came down. Provided this has not affected his confidence, he also looks a grand prospect.
The other horse mentioned, FRENCH TIES, found nothing after jumping the final flight while disputing the lead with the eventual winner.

Today, there are meetings at Carlisle and Ludlow, and a meeting at Punchestown in Ireland.
At Carlisle, the 2:40 – a 2 mile class 4 h’cap chase – has Duke Of Malfi the 4/1 fav. He’s not won at Carlisle in 4 visits, and has only won once from 9 starts on heavy going. As such, I don’t think he’ll enjoy conditions today. It is a class 4 race, so no world beaters in this – but one horse does come into the race with a semblance of form, that’s STORM SURGE. He has been off the track since last May, that’s 256 days. But, he handles soft and he needs a strongly run race, which he should get today courtesy of the fav. I reckon he could run a lot better than his 9/1 odds (Corals) in this.

At Ludlow, I like the look of the class 3 h’cap chase at 4:00. There are lot’s in this with question-marks, including the fav Shadow Dancer. He’s been on my radar a long time now but not gone on to win in ages. As such, I am siding with the 6yo from the in-form Charlie Longsdon stable RESTEZEN D’ARMOR. His odds are not fantastic tho’ at just 11/2.

Selections:
Carlisle 2:40 STORM SURGE, ½pt eachway @ 9/1 (Corals, best odds guaranteed)
Ludlow 4:00 RESTEZEN D’AMOR, ½pt eachway @ 11/2 (Betfred, best odds guaranteed)
Both firms go 5th odds a place 1-2-3
Total = 2pts staked

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No place for unwarranted criticism in racing

No blog posted yesterday, but that does not mean the racing was not interesting. I spent the afternoon updating the Horse Alert List results section.
Not the best Horses-to-Follow list there is, it did not lose much in the past month. I’m hoping that there will be a couple of long-odds winners from the list as there are still a few yet to race, though (with more than a few running well-off their best form) it is more “hope” than expectancy.

Yesterday, there were a couple of poor results for fav backers. Vino Griego jumped very poorly at Lingfield, and the 2/5 “on” fav could only finish 3rd. Next-up, there was an interesting duel between the 2 market leaders in the 20f novice hurdle, and the fav Cresswell Crusader looked the stronger from 3-out. But jumping right at the 2nd-last and again at the last showed there was little left in the tank, and the Timmy Murphy ridden Not Til Monday stayed-on best on the run-in. The 5lb claimer Rachel Green received some criticism for her ride on the beaten fav, but in my opinion AP McCoy would not have won on it as the horse did not stay the trip (well enough to win). Had the jockeys been reversed, I’m sure that Not Til Monday (being 10lb better off if ridden by Rachel Green) would have won the race in a canter.

There are meetings at Sedgefield and Market Rasen today.
The meeting at Market Rasen leaves me a bit cold – absolutely dire stuff going on there.
Sedgefield looks a better prospect for interesting racing.
THE KNOXS, trained by Howard Johnson, beat Wymott over hurdles last season at level weights, and that shows how much potential he has – if he can manage to finish. He’s not done that in 2 tries at chasing yet, but he did jump well enough (before falling) to suggest he has plenty of potential in this sphere. Whether you can have him at just 7/4 is debateable. Lord Villez and Pyracantha look decent types (altho’ they were beaten LTO by another Howard Johnson horse) and do not overlook Lightening Rod, who has his chase debut today and was another capable hurdler. I’d be looking for 9/4 about THE KNOXS here.
The extreme 3m3f & 110 yards of the h’cap hurdle at 3:25 will find out any stamina doubts here, and the nod must go to C&D winner FRENCH TIES. He jinked-off the course LTO, but he was fav for that race and this looks an easier task. If Overlady is given an easy lead then she may defy a break of 674 days, but for me the form preference is FRENCH TIES, tho’ again I’d be looking for more than the 3/1 currently on offer (4’s will tempt me into a wager).

As such, no selections today. There is always another day.

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Another win for the Horse Alert List

There were 4 horses named on the blog yesterday with 2 nominated selections – THEATRICAL MOMENT and MAKTU. Both the selections ran awful races. With Theatrical Moment, the writing was on the wall after they’d gone less than a mile as McCoy was niggling the horse as they passed the winning post on the 1st-circuiut. I’ll take nothing away from the veteran Eric’s Charm who won the race.
As for Maktu, I thought he struggled to stay the extreme Welsh National trip, but I thought that this was not as strong a race, however it is now clear that the horse does not stay a yard further than 3-mile. He was right there at 4-out (after 3-miles) but faded dramatically thereon.
As I expected, CAPTAIN CHRIS ran a cracker in the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown, coming 3nd beaten just half-a-length. This was brilliant news for me and anyone who took my advice to have an antepost wager on GHIZAO for the Arkle last November at 12/1. I had a bit of adverse after that blog back then, but yesterday’s result has shown that GHIZAO has nothing to fear from this side of the Irish Sea in the Arkle.

The Horse Alert List is on a bit of a roll, with PALYPSO DE CREEK winning at 7/2 (from 5’s) making it 2 wins in 2 days for the list following PLEIN POUVIOR at 3/1 on Friday. The 13pts profit from those 2 winners is welcome, and I’ll do a full update of results from the Alert List tomorrow.

No selections today, and the loss of the Leopardstown meeting is very disappointing.

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Profitable day for the blog

A good day for the blog yesterday. Not only was the eachway blog selection profitable – MASTER SOMERVILLE was 3rd, having been advised at 18/1 in the morning – but the Horse Alert list also provided a winner (that happened to be in the same race) with PLEIN POUVIOR winning at 3/1.
So, the blog selection provided a 1.30pt profit (not 1.75pts as I wrote in my comments after learning the result) which puts the blog on a 0.30pt profit for the month.

Some good racing today at Sandown, Ffos Las, and Wetherby.

The Novice chase at 2:25 at Sandown looks a cracker of a race and worthy of a place at the Festival itself. I will not be making a selection in the race, but personally I expect that CAPTAIN CHRIS will show how good he really is today – and boost the prospects of his conqueror Ghizao in the “Arkle”. Later in the 3:35 we have an opportunity with THEATRICAL MOMENT. He never stopped improving last season (was OTT in the Scottish National) and was not beaten much in the William Hill H’cap at the Festival. He runs off OR135 today, which is 7lb less than he carried at the Festival, and he goes well right-handed and will love the going. At 13/2, he looks a decent wager.

At Ffos Las, the Welsh Champion Hurdle is a bit of a joke, which must be terribly disappointing for the organisers and sponsors. The 3m4f chase at 3:10 looks a good race and MAKTU would have been hard to beat in the Peter Marsh (had it been run a few weeks back). His stamina was stretched in the Welsh National but this does not look as strong a race at that was. At 6/1 he looks a decent eachway wager.

At Wetherby, if PALYPSO DE CREEK does not win the 2:45 then he’s being sent hunting.

Selections:
Sandown 3:35, THEATRICAL MOMENT, ½pt eachway @ 13/2 (Hills)
Ffos Las 3:10, MAKTU, ½pt eachway @ 6/1 (Hills)
Total = 2pts staked

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Henry Daly to score with a longshot?

It was a good idea to pass over some of the more obvious “money” horses such as Glebehall Bay and Sir Winston yesterday as neither won, and yet they both were sent off at odds of 11/4 which was far too short to represent their respective chances.

There are 3 meetings today at Bangor, Catterick and Chepstow.

At Bangor, the novice chase at 3:30 may only have 3 runners, but it looks like being a good pointer to the RSA at the Festival next month. A race to watch.
In the 3-mile chase h’cap at 4:05, YOUNGSTOWN has come down 7lb off his peak rating to OR118, despite running well. He looks good to go in this, but my worry is the going at good-to-soft may be too quick for him. Do not overlook AFISTFULOFPEBBLES who tries 3-mile for the first time. He should stay the trip as he’s related to good staying chasers, but his last run was a stinker and he’s on a recovery mission.

There is nothing that takes my interest at Catterick, altho’ in the 3m1f & 110 yards hurdle, only BALLYMACDUFF has winning form over this sort of trip.

At Chepstow, there is an interesting h’cap chase at 4:15 for which RATEABLE VALUE looks a worthy fav. He’s not won a chase yet tho’ and there is scope to oppose him. Henry Daly is having a poor season by his own standards, yet his horses are running well enough without winning. He has MASTER SOMERVILLE in this race, and were he to repeat the form of his 2nd to Edgebriar last March off OR116 then he’d take some beating today. The horse goes best fresh, and has been off since 22nd November. Also, Richard Johnson has the ride and he rides the chase course well at Chepstow. MASTER SOMERVILLE is 18/1 (Chandlers, Hills, both go best odds guaranteed) and he’s worth a speculative eachway wager.

Selection:
Chepstow 4:15, MASTER SOMERVILLE, ½pt eachway @ 18/1 (Chandlers & Hills)

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Festival antepost news

I was a bit gutted yesterday not to put STAR PLAYER up as the blog selection as, when I learned that Dark Ben had been withdrawn (along with a couple of others) and that the going was particularly “sticky” after the first race had been run, there was little to oppose the fav. He led alongside Jeringa for most of the race, but he was always in control going-on from the 4th last and thereon never looking in danger. He did finish tired, so he’ll need a rest from this. There was never any possibility of obtaining 4/1 after Dark Ben had been withdrawn, tho’ STAR PLAYER did touch 100/30 before starting as the 9/4 fav. As I said, he was the most likely winner.

There are jump meetings at Towcester and Wincanton today.
The 3-mile h’cap chase at 3:10 at Towcester looks like going to GLEBEHALL BAY who fell 3-out when clear LTO. It’s a “would he or wouldn’t he” question. Personally, I have seen many a horse falter when clear 3-out, so I’m doubtful enough not to nominate him as a selection. Of the others, you cannot ignore a Jonjo O’Neill chaser at Towcester (22 wins from 67 runners, 33%) and LTO winners Crank Hill, Atherstone Hill and Hobbs Dream make this a race to pass over.
At Wincanton, the 3-mile h’cap chase at 3:50 could go to SIR WINSTON. He is one-paced, but so are a lot of these in this ordinary race. However, the slight relaxation by the handicapper (dropped a 1lb to OR94) plus the 5lb claim of his jockey, means he could be in with a squeak here. Odds of 7/1 looks fair enough given his consistency of form and safe jumping.
The hunter chase season starts today, and the next on the card is a “hunter” over 3-mile. The one in this that interests me is JAYNE’S CRUSADER, a half-brother to Mad Max and Carole’s Legacy. He clearly has some quality in his blood and the 8yo, being one of the youngest horses in the race, may have some improvement in him despite this looking a trip that will stretch his stamina.

No firm selection today.

Cheltenham Festival Update
Essentially, the races to focus on prior to about a week before the Festival itself, are the “championship” races. That is those races were every horse carries the same weight. There have been a few developments this week, the major one being that PEDDLERS CROSS was withdrawn from his preparation race this weekend due to “coughing” after a gallop this morning. This is not good news, as the horse has already missed one prep race and there are not many opportunities left to get a run in before the Festival.
In the Ryanair, the 2nd-fav in the antepost lists – SOMERSBY – has been declared by trainer Henrietta Knight as being aimed at the QM Champion Chase. This, in my opinion, makes the current Ryanair fav POQUELIN a standout wager at 9/2 as there is little amongst the likely opposition that will be capable of beating him on the day.
In the World Hurdle, there has been an almighty gamble on GRANDS CRUS following his rout of the opposition in last Saturday’s Cleeve Hurdle at the ‘trials’ meeting. Now just 5/2, it has meant that the odds on the fav BIG BUCKS have relaxed somewhat to 10/11. BIG BUCKS has never been stretched in an unbeaten run of 10 hurdle races in the UK, so we don’t know how good he is but his speed-ratings are far superior to anything GRANDS CRUS has done, so he should be capable of retaining his title.
Paul Nicholls has won 16 chase races with 35 runners in Ireland in the past 5 years (46% strikerate) and he sends PRIDE OF DULCOTE there on Sunday for the Hennessey Gold Cup (grade 1). If he wins, and it will only be his 3rd chase race, then his Cheltenham Gold Cup odds will tumble from the best of 18/1 with Corals – you have been warned!
Some races are still wide open; the ‘Neptune’ Novices Hurdle on Day 2 for instance, and the newly created ‘Golden Miller’ over 2m4f for novice chasers which opens Day 3. So, there is plenty of opportunity left in the antepost markets.

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The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
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Spiderman, Spiderman...

Not much to say about yesterday’s selection ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES. There was clearly plenty of support for the horse as it was put up at 20/1 by a couple of firms at midnight, and by 8:30am it was at 12’s. By the time I posted my blog at 10:50am the odds were down to 8/1, and the SP was just 11/2. The horse led until just before 3-out, whereupon he faded quickly. The only thing that can be drawn from such a performance was that the horse wasn’t race-fit. The going was reported as “good”, but when you look as the race times and the way all the races were run on the chase course with the finishers all well strung-out, it would seem to me the going was “testing” and no better than soft. As such, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES will be given one more chance to redeem himself.

There are a couple of meetings today at Leicester and Newcastle but, as I write, Leicester is frost-bound and a 2nd inspection is planned for later this morning.

As such, I am passing over Leicester and looking at Newcastle.
Only one race catches my attention and it’s the 3-mile chase at 3:50. The fav Star Player seems to have got his act together this season and todays trip/going will suit, but odds of 11/4 are not value in what may be a tight race. Its Teescomponents last won here a year ago off OR102, and races off OR110 today. For me, Jeringa is not up to winning this, he’s too much of a plodder. The going will be too soft for Raining Horse. Dark Ben is interesting, but has a big weight to carry and needs to have come on for his seasonal debut. It is the horse Its Teescomponents beat here last Jan that interests me – SAMMY SPIDERMAN. He’s dropped 7lb from OR101 to OR94, whereas Its Teescomponents has gone up 8lb and that means SAMMY SPIDERMAN is 15lb better-off for 2½ lengths. He’s at 9/1 for this! On the face of it, Star Player does have a favourites chance, but if Its Teescomponents is a 4/1 chance, then SAMMY SPIDERMAN should be shorter. His last run was a duff one, but he took a few runs last season to get race-fit. Add the application of 1st-time cheek-pieces and we may see a big improvement in form.

I’m not making a selection today for this as I think the betting should be more like:-
Star Player (the likely winner) @ 4/1,
Its Teescomponents @ 5/1,
Sammy Spiderman @ 11/2,
Dark Ben @ 6/1,
Raining Horse @ 7/1,
Jeringa @ 8/1
with the others at 10/1

Given the form, if I can get 4’s about Star Player then I will have a wager on him.

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The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
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A blogging milestone passed

Just realised that yesterday’s blog passed a milestone – it was my 200th blog page.

So, this is blog page 201 and the start of a new month.

There are a couple of meetings today; at Folkestone and Taunton.
At Folkestone, from the Alert List we have ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES in the class 5 chase at 3:40over a trip of 3m1f. He has been dropped 4lb to OR88 for pulling-up on heavy going LTO, and that is a gift from the handicapper. Both his runs this season have been on unsuitable going (good-to-firm and heavy) and today’s good-to-soft should be perfect. Trainer Chris Gordon has an appalling record at Folkestone (0 from 30) but he had a 50/1 winner a few days ago, and perhaps he’s got his stable firing. There is certainly plenty of support in the market for him. He opened at 20/1 (very early doors) and was quickly cut to 12’s (at 8:30am), now he is best-priced at 8/1 (Ladbrokes).
Dougie Costello, who normally rides in the North, makes a long journey here for 2 rides and the most likely winner of those is COTILLION in the 3:10.

At Taunton, nothing jumps out at me, altho’ the “bumper” that closes the card should be worth watching for the notebook.

Selection:
We’ve missed the longer odds about ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES now, so I’m going win-only, as there are now only 7 runners.
Folkestone 3:40, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes)
Total staked = 1pt

Thanks for reading this blog to all new visitors.

The blog takes a lot of effort to maintain and I hope that readers of the blog get enjoyment from it too. If you have had a successful wager on the back of what you’ve read here, then please make a contribution as an expression of thanks. Feel free to tell those who you think may find the blog of interest and value and, if you are a regular visitor, please add the blog to your list of favourites.
Thanks from Wayward Lad