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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 26 February 2011

Monthly round-up

This afternoon, I’m flying out for a week in Spain (back on Sunday 6th March), so there won’t be a blog next week, but hopefully should be back up & running on Monday 7th March.

This morning, the day most eagerly awaited (other than the 1st day of the Festival) is upon us when through the post-box drops the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide written by Paul Jones. This is a remarkable booklet, not only for providing positive angles for punters on the forthcoming Cheltenham Festival, but also being a good read in itself. What anyone who likes to have a wager on the horses can do is learn from this book. It is an abject lesson in how to assess a horserace (or anything that you might want to have a wager on). Previous Festival results are assessed and analysed, and any trends appertaining to the result are identified. The overall objective is to allow the punter the ability to produce a shortlist of likely winners and so concentrate their form-study on those.

I did write in my blog yesterday that if Russian Flag was in the mood, then he was thrown-in off a mark 3lb lower than when he won a class 2 h’cap over C&D at Sandown, and win he did at 7/1. My selection KILKENNY ALL STAR ran an absolute stinker, and that was probably expected by connections as he drifted markedly before the off from 5/1 out to 8/1. My other selection INCENTIVISE was just touched-off into 2nd having come to win his race and leading briefly after the final fence. The winner was Money Order trained by Brendan Powell who gave him his 4th winner from 9 runners in the past week – Money Order was his only runner yesterday. Overall, 2pts lost on the day, leaving the monthly balance at 5.925pts in profit.

This month’s selections have been:-
1st Feb, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES, 1pt win @ 8/1 Lost …c/f (1.00pts)
4th Feb, MASTER SOMERVILLE, ½pt eachway @ 18/1 placed 3rd …+1.30pts, c/f +0.30pts
5th Feb, THEATRICAL MOMENT, ½pt eachway @ 13/2 Lost …c/f (0.70pts)
5th Feb, MAKTU, ½pt eachway @ 6/1 Lost …c/f (1.70pts)
9th Feb, STORM SURGE, ½pt eachway @ 9/1 Lost …c/f (2.70pts)
9th Feb, RESTEZEN D’AMOR, ½pt eachway @ 11/2 Lost …c/f (3.70pts)
11th Feb, ALDERBURN, 1pt win @ 14/1 Lost …c/f (4.70pts)
12th Feb, CHANCE DU ROY, 1pt eachway @ 5/1 placed 3rd … nil pts, c/f (4.70pts)
18th Feb, QHILIMAR, 1pt win @ 15/2 WON …+7.50pts, c/f +2.80pts
18th Feb, FRENCH OPERA, 2pts win @ 7/2 WON …+7.00pts, c/f +9.80pts
18th Feb, ZANIR, ½pt eachway @ 20/1 Lost (fell) …c/f +8.80pts
19th Feb, LE BEAU BAI, ½pt eachway @ 9/1 placed 3rd …+0.625pts, c/f +9.425pts
19th Feb, PALYPSO DE CREEK, ½pt eachway @ 11/1 Lost …c/f +8.425pts
22nd Feb, PACCO, 1pt win @ 5/2 Lost …. c/f +7.425pts
24th Feb, BACKFROMTHECONGO, ½pt eachway@ 10/1 placed 2nd …+0.50pts. c/f +7.925pts
25th Feb, KILKENNY ALL STAR, ½pt eachway @ 7/1 Lost …c/f+6.925pts
25th Feb, INCENTIVISE, 1pt win @ 5/2 Lost (2nd) …c/f+5.925pts

2 wins and 4 placed from 17 selections, 19pts staked, ROI (return on investment) = 31.18%

There are jump meetings today at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle, tho’ there is an 8am inspection at Newcastle. Let’s hope the meeting goes ahead and we see the Eider Chase being run. Unusually, every year since 2001, this race has been won by a horse carrying 11st 1lb or more. They are usually all well fancied too – all winners bar one at odds of 11/1 or under. Belon Gale and Giles Cross have to be in the mix – but which one?
There is nothing worth looking at down in Chepstow.
At Kempton we have a great meeting starting off with the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle and this is usually a big pointer for the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival. Next up is the Pendil Novices Chase, and a disappointing turnout of just 4 runners, and if this does not go to Captain Chris then I’m giving up.
The Racing Post Chase h’cap looks a good renewal with Nacarat, Razor Royale and last year’s fav for the race Fistral Beach. The last named looks to have a better chance this year than he did last year, yet he’s at longer odds.

Anyway, that’s it for the month. I’m leaving the blog in profit, and looking forward to Cheltenham.
Here is my antepost portfolio and, I’m happy to say, it’s looking good.

For the Cheltenham Gold Cup
IMPERIAL COMMANDER, 2pts win @ 9/2 (on 22/11/2010, and again on 28/11/2010)
DENMAN, 1pt eachway @ 8/1 (on 28/11/2010)
BURTON PORT ½pt eachway @ 20/1 (on 28/11/2010)
(Note: BURTON PORT is now out for the season)

For the Champion Hurdle
PEDDLERS CROSS, 1pt eachway @ 14/1 (on 27/11/2010)
PEDDLERS CROSS, 1pt win @ 11/2 (on 17/2/2011)
BINOCULAR, 1pt win @ 4/1 (on 17/2/2011)

For the Arkle
GHIZAO 1pt eachway @ 12/1 (on 23/11/2010)
GHIZAO, 1pt win @ 6/1 (on 04/1/2011)

For the QM Champion Chase
FRENCH OPERA, 1pt eachway @ 50/1 (11/2/2011)
GAUVAIN ½pt eachway @ 25/1 (on 15/11/2010)
MASTER MINDED, 1pt win @ 11/4 (on 26/1/2011)
MASTER MINDED, 1pt win @ 5/2 (on 22/2/2011)

For the Ryanair Chase
POQUELIN, 2pts win @ 4/1 (on 18/2/2011)

For the RSA Chase
BOSTONS ANGEL, 1pt eachway @ 16/1 (on 23/2/2011)

Multiple bet advised on 17th Jan 2011
Arkle: GHIZAO @ 6/1
Champion Hurdle: PEDDLERS CROSS @ 6/1
Ryanair: POQUELIN @ 9/2 and RIVERSIDE THEATRE @ 16/1
That is:-
9 x doubles @ ¼pt = 2¼pts
7 x trebles @ ¼pt = 1¾pts
2 x accumulators @ ½pt = 1pt
Total = 5pts staked

Total Antepost wagers stake = 26pts

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

1 comment:

  1. There is huge confidence about FISTRAL BEACH from Paul Nicholls this morning.