The ups & downs of betting in-running were displayed yesterday with the blog selection BACKFROMTHECONGO. On the run-up to the final fence, he looked destined for 3rd place as eventual winner Honourable Arthur looked to have the race in the bag. It all changed in a matter of strides at that final fence where BFTC produced a decent jump to go 2nd, and then Honourable Arthur nearly stopped as he idled in front so badly. This allowed BFTC to plod upsides the leader and he even got his head in front – at this point good money traded at under 1.20 on Betfair on BFTC (touched 1.11). That was the jolt Honourable Arthur needed and he picked-up the bit again and ran on in the final 100 yards to a comfortable win.
The 2nd place from BACKFROMTHECONGO produced a ½pt profit, taking the profit from selections this month to +7.925pts (since 1st Feb).
STARLUCK won his debut novice chase at Huntingdon, but it was not an exhilarating display and it’s unlikely he’ll be in the winners enclosure after the Arkle at the Festival. Take note: AP McCoy has now won on 2 of his last 3 rides for Brendan Powell as he won on Naughty Naughty y’day at 4/1. When he rides for Powell, take note as it usually is a strong pointer.
Its heavy ground at Warwick, and that is not my favourite going. The way I look at it, slow horses run better on heavy going as they are able to run at their normal rhythm without the going affecting them – whereas quicker horses (on better going) have their rhythm disrupted by the going which means they can’t run as economically as they usually do, expend too much energy and so run poorly. The 3m5f h‘cap chase was won last year on heavy going by Lavenoak Lad off 10st with the benefit of a 7lb claimer, meaning he carried just 9st 7lb to victory. He’s on 10st again today, but no claimer rides him; its Colin Bolger. He may go well today, but he’s got no tactical speed so it’ll be a case of the others not going well for him to win. Richard Lee (trainer of Backfromthecongo) has his stable in good form, and INCENTIVISE looks the best bet in this race. Proven at the trip and on the going, he looks capable of defying his OR122 rating. At 5/2 (with Betfred and Will Hill) he looks a decent wager.
At Sandown, the 2-mile class 3 h’cap chase looks an interesting puzzle. I think Dinarius didn’t beat much LTO and has gone up 13lb for that win. This is also a significant drop in trip today and there are others in the race who won’t let him dominate the race (unless he is very good). I don’t think Clouseau will appreciate the soft going, nor will some of the others (Viable, Lorient Express). Lord Singer needs to go left-handed. The last time Top Mark went chasing in July 2009, he looked a decent sort. However, since returning from injury over hurdles this season he’s been a shadow of his former self. An old fav of mine Russian Flag, seems to have lost his way since winning over C&D last February in a class 2 chase beating solid handicapper Consigliere. He’s on a mark 3lb lower than what he won off then, so if he’s in the mood he’s thrown in. But the one I’m on today for this is KILKENNY ALL STAR who is as solid as they come. Soft ground is no problem, the only doubt is going RH here at Sandown, but altho’ he’s not won going RH before he has run some fair races going that way. Throw-in the 5lb claim of his talented jockey Shane Byrne, and at 11/2 with Corals (5th odds a place 1,2,3) he looks a eachway “steal”.
Selection:
Sandown 2:10, KILKENNY ALL STAR, ½pt eachway @ 11/2 (Corals, best odds guaranteed)
Warwick 3:50, INCENTIVISE, 1pt win @ 5/2 (Will Hill, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 2pts staked
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