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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 11 February 2011

Redemption for Punchestowns?

We have a half-decent meeting at Kempton today, with another at Musselburgh in Scotland.

Nicky Henderson is a man to be on the right side of at Kempton with stats of 58 winners from 192 runners in past 5 years, and in chases he’s even stronger with 21 wins from 64 runners (33%). He sends a chasing debutant here today for the 2:05 a beginners chase for horses yet to win a chase race, called ZAZAMIX. It is a tough induction to chasing, but if Henderson is sending the horse here then he clearly holds him in high regard. He runs Punchestowns later in the afternoon as well, and if the horse can’t win this then connections will really be scratching their heads. Unfortunately, the odds are not great at 8/11 for a horse who can “drop a leg”, but he should win comfortably.

The Horse Alert List has a runner in recent winner Plein Pouvior, but today’s race is over 3-mile and the horse does not stay this sort of trip. As I wrote in my Horse Alert list narrative, Plein Pouvior needs a trip less than 22f and the word “soft” in the description. He’s run 5 times beyond 21f and never won or looked capable of staying the trip, so on that basis I reckon he can be safely opposed. Of the others, Soixante doesn’t look like he’ll stay 3 mile either; whereas top-weight ALDERBURN loves 3-mile and good going, he’s also a C&D winner. Carrickmines also loves 3-mile, but would prefer soft/heavy and is still 5lb above his last winning mark. Rory Boy and Fortification are both out of form and Ravethebrave is also untried at 3-mile and his rating (OR129) seems high to me. ALDERBURN won on 23rd October and comes here just 2lb higher for that win. He is very consistent and odds of 14/1 for this race look extremely generous to me given the question-marks over the others in the race and that it fits ALDERBURN to a tee.

I want to get this blog off and posted. So I am not looking at any other races today.

Kempton 4:20, ALDERBURN, 1pt win @ 14/1 (Vic Chander, best odds guaranteed)
There are only 7 runners in this race, so eachway is not really an option.
Total = 1pt staked

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