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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Thursday 17 February 2011

A Fly in the ointment

Many thanks for all the kind and generous messages of support for the blog yesterday, via twitter and on the blog. I took 220.0 on TARANIS (via Betfair) for the Grand National yesterday, and he's now down to 170.0.

There are meetings at Ffos Las and Kelso today – but all eyes will focus on the performance of PEDDLERS CROSS at Kelso this afternoon.

In this race last year, Zaynar was beaten at odds of 1/14 by the 12/1 Quwetwo. Will it happen again today? I doubt it even tho’ PEDDLERS CROSS is “only” 2/11 today, and there is nothing in opposition with the potential of Quwetwo. My opinion is that Zaynar was defeated by the extreme travelling distance from Lambourn to Kelso of about 300 miles. PEDDLERS CROSS travels over 200 miles from Donald McCains yard in Cheshire, but McCain has a healthy strike rate here (10 from 74, 14%) so he knows how to ensure horses travel well.

Again, it’s a day without promise on the betting front. Yesterday, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES was a non-runner, but I was on-the-ball with Donald Will Do in the same race. I said he wasn’t a real 3-miler and he showed that yesterday. Leading till 4-out, he lost the lead then and tho’ “ridden” he found nothing and plodded on to be a well-beaten 2nd. This was a weak race as the winner One More Dinar was winning his 1st race under rules. The blog remains “down” 4.70pts for the month.

So, as promised yesterday, a review of some of the antepost markets for the Festival.

The Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase
Finian’s Rainbow disappointed with some deliberate jumping last Saturday and really should not now be 9/2 joint-fav. Medermit won well LTO at Sandown, but what puts me off him is that in 5 races at Cheltenham, he’s never won. In his other 13 races, all on flat tracks (RP description) - other than Exeter and Plumpton – he’s won 6 times! I cannot fault GHIZAO who has been my idea of the winner for a long time. I note that Noble Prince has yet to be withdrawn (trainer says target is another race at Festival), and I would not be surprised if he lines up in the Arkle as it looks a weak renewal on paper lacking depth.

The Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

We will know a bit more by 5pm today about this race.
No matter which way I look at the formbook, I cannot have Menorah in this, unless it is a slower Champion Hurdle than normal. That said, I’m not sure where the pace will come from as Binocular needs plenty, and it may be that Henderson will sacrifice one of his horses to set a searing gallop. Hurricane Fly could be a real “fly in the ointment” if he’s as good as his supporters think. Thing is, I don’t, as I have him about 164 at best and that rating is flimsy. He’s only run on good going (over hurdles) or quicker, twice – all his other runs have been on soft/heavy going. His best win on “good” being when winning the Irish Champion Hurdle at Punchestown last April. With the handicapper Thousand Stars only a couple of lengths back in 3rd, that was not remarkable form.
I’m on PEDDLERS CROSS at 14’s and I’m happy with that, but Sporting Odds go 4/1 about BINOCULAR today and I’m going to have a 1pt “saver” on him at those odds and another 1pt on PEDDLERS CROSS at 11/2.

Champion Hurdle on 15th March 2011
BINOCULAR, 1pt win @ 4/1 with Sportingodds
PEDDLERS CROSS, 1pt win @ 11/2 with William Hill

More of the Cheltenham Festival markets tomorrow.

Before I write-off, Paul Jones of Weatherby’s stated via twitter today that almost half of all handicap hurdle winners (at the Cheltenham Festival) won last time out since 1993 (27/55) from approx 20% representation. If you refer to my Festival stats guide (see adjacent pages) you will also read that 35 of the last 40 Handicap Hurdle winners carried no more than 11st 3lb. Combine those 2 stats and you have the basis for a very short, shortlist.

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Thanks from Wayward Lad

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