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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 23 February 2011
SUPER KENNY to the rescue!
As I said, the only thing preventing me from putting SHOREACRES up as a selection yesterday was his odds. At the time he was 15/8, and he eventually started at 7/4. I managed to obtain 3.40 (about 9/4) in-running to small money but it wasn’t enough. Perhaps I was being hard on myself as the horse ran out a very convincing winner, coming home 28-length clear of the 8/15 fav trained by Paul Nicholls. Be sure to put the name of SHOREACRES in your notebook. He could go into the Festival on a very handy chasing rating.
By contrast, I considered the blog selection PACCO as good value at 5/2, and he drifted to 7/2 on-course (touched 6.20 or 5/1 on Betfair), but he never got into the race. There were a couple of fences omitted and he was caught flat-footed when the leaders quickened away with under a mile to go. The effort of getting back on terms told in the sticky going, and he was never going to catch the eventual winner – Pak Jak – who was winning for the first time since January 2005.
As such, the blog dropped a point to stand at +7.425pts profit for the month (since 1st Feb).
The racing at Ludlow and Doncaster looks dire, and I’m not tempted to make a wager. That said, OFFSHORE ACCOUNT can run very well when fit enough to do himself justice – was 4th in William Hill Trophy H’cap at the Festival last March to Chief Dan George off OR135, and that makes him easily the most talented horse in this hunter chase at Doncaster at 4:40.
At Ludlow, Nicky Henderson sends 2 runners and it’s SUPER KENNY who looks the most tempting at 5/1 for the 3:50 class 3 hurdle – but has he improved his hurdling? If he has, then he could scoot home in this.
Festival Antepost Review
We’ve looked at:-
The Ryanair Chase on 18th Feb 2011;
The Arkle & The Champion Hurdle on 17th Feb 2011;
The Queen Mother Champion Chase on 21st Feb 2011.
For races such as the Supreme Novices Hurdle which opens the Festival, and the Neptune Hurdle; I find its best to wait until you know the actual runners taking part before having a wager. It is not unusual for trainers to double-enter their stable hopes and not decide the final target until the weekend before the Festival. This is not the case with the RSA Chase (Novice) Chase over 3m 1f.
The RSA (Novice) Chase
Of the previous 11 winners, 9 were 7yo. Add to that 12 of the last 20 winners had won over 3-miles (or more) and that all the previous 11 winners had run at least 3 times over fences; this is a race in which experience counts, not potential ability. In fact racing experience in general is important as 16 of the last 18 winners have had at least nine NH starts.
From the fav (Time For Rupert) going out:-
Time For Rupert: 11 runs incl 2 chases; won at 24f
Jessies Dream: 8 runs incl 5 chases; not won at 24f
1833: 6 runs incl 2 chases; won at 24f
Wymott: 7 runs incl 3 chases; won at 24f
Wayward Prince: 7 runs incl 3 chases; won at 24f
Wishfull Thinking: 9 runs incl 4 chases; not won at 24f
Bostons Angel: 11 runs incl 3 chases; won at 24f
Magnanimity: 10 runs incl 4 chases; not won at 24f
Master Of The Hall looks to be a right-hand track specialist. As for Wishful Thinking, he has bags of class (beat Grand Crus no less giving him 6lb and a 7-length beating only 12-months ago), but he’s yet to show he stays the 3-mile-plus trip. Take out the others that have not yet won at 3-mile (Jessies Dream and Magnanimity) and we are down to a shortlist of 5. You cannot fault Time For Rupert, but his odds of just 5/2 leave no scope for error. For no reason other than the market, I am looking towards BOSTONS ANGEL at 16/1 and WAYWARD PRINCE at 12/1. I think WAYWARD PRINCE would have beaten Chicago Grey (had the latter not fallen 2-out) and so he’s not far short of Time For Rupert who is 8lb better than Chicago Grey. BOSTONS ANGEL won the best RSA/Arkle trial race of recent years LTO and he ticks all the boxes in terms of experience and ability.
The RSA Chase on 16th March 2011
BOSTONS ANGEL, 1pt eachway @ 16/1 (available generally)
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