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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Saturday 12 February 2011

French Opera to sing for his supper

Sometimes when I look back at results I think that perhaps I should not have been so greedy and gone for the speculative “big-one” and just gone for the solid “easy money”. That happened yesterday in the race at Kempton that I reviewed and made my selection in. The 2/1 joint-fav was Plein Pouvior who is also on my Alert List (see adjacent pages). As I wrote yesterday, the horse does not stay a yard further than 21f and y’days race was over 3-mile. Throw-in that from 8 previous starts on good-to-soft or better going the horse had never finished in the 1st-3 and it was most unlikely that he was going to win – in fact, he was probably a place-lay in the 7-runner contest with only the 1st-2 places up for grabs. He never got into the race and actually lost 3rd-place after the final fence to come home 4th of the 6 starters (there was a non-runner). It was an easy place-lay and one of my twitter contacts was able to “place-lay” at 1.78 on Betfair. Instead, I went for the big one and chose ALDERBURN and he was unable to match the pace of eventual winner Carrickmines (who, as I wrote y’day, loves 3-mile and has now won 4 of his 5 starts at that trip) but stayed-on to be 3rd.
As I expected, Punchestowns won y’day at 4/6. Not great odds, but a winner is a winner. Punchestowns has now won all 6 of his starts at 2m5f or less, but has only won 1 of his 7 starts at trips greater than 2m5f. He’s also won only once from 6 starts at Cheltenham, but has won 6 of his 7 starts away from that track – very interesting. The Grade 1, Melling Chase over 2m4f at Aintree looks right up his street so let’s hope he gives the Festival a miss.

The blog is down 4.70pts this month, so the pressure is on to recover some, if not all, of the deficit. There are 3 meetings on at Ayr, Newbury and Warwick.

At Warwick, Arkle fav Finian’s Rainbow has only 3 rivals in the “Kingmaker” but he should know he’s been in a race afterwards. The h’cap chase at 2:10 brings together a useful field. I was initially drawn to top-weight Hey Big Spender, as he is capable of winning off this mark, but the trip is probably on the short side for him. Most of these are badly handicapped on recent form, and there is only one to go for in the circumstances and that’s CHANCE DU ROY, who is 5/1 a very generous price.

At Ayr, nothing much takes my eye, tho’ DIAMOND FRONTIER has conditions to his liking in the 3:20 class 3 h’cap chase. Course specialist Quicuyo will take some beating, but he allows DIAMOND FRONTIER to go off at better odds than he should. Even so, 9/4 is a bit on the short side for me and I’d want 3/1 at least. If you can get that, take advantage.

Newbury is the day’s top meeting in the UK. I want to oppose Riverside Theatre in the Aon Chase, but with what? I’ll be either proved right or wrong today, but my reading of the King George on Boxing Day was that Kauto Star was well-off his best and finished exhausted. As such, I rated Riverside Theatre at 159 (PB) with Long Run on 168. If I’m right, then What A Friend is his equal on ratings but the 4lb extra he carries may just nobble him. It all depends on whether Riverside Theatre really stays 3-mile, or was he flattered LTO?
Here’s a Cheltenham Festival tip!
Take the odds about FRENCH OPERA now for the QMCC for which he’s 50/1 with Corals as after he wins the Game Spirit Chase, he will be no longer than 10/1 for the big one. He is easily better than any in this race and I thought he’d be Henderson’s QMCC horse after the last Festival and I still do.
The Totesport Trophy is one of the betting handicaps of the season, and ZANIR did us proud LTO. He was tipped in the Weekender this week when at 40/1. He’s best at 28/1 today, but I’d take 25’s with a firm offering best-odds-guaranteed, such as Chandlers of Corals. Paddy Brennan takes the ride and that suggests the horse has a real chance in a race that will give him the pace he needs.

Warwick 2:10, CHANCE DU ROY, 1pt eachway @ 5/1 (Vic Chander, best odds guaranteed)
Newbury 3:00 FRENCH OPERA, 2pts win @ 3/1 (Vic Chander, best odds guaranteed)
Newbury 3:35 ZANIR, ½pt eachway @ 25/1 (Vic Chander, best odds guaranteed)
Total = 5pts staked

Queen Mother Champion Chase
FRENCH OPERA, 1pt eachway @ 50/1 with Corals

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  1. What can I say? A horrendous day for racing. I'll not point fingers until knowing the facts, as I realise it could have been a very unfortunate accident that happened at Newbury.
    What racing has to do is get the answer to today quickly and professionally, and if people are at fault they should be dealt with very severely.
    Remember, the horses paid for any mistakes with their lives.

  2. Very unfortunate incident that will probably set some sort of precedent for future meetings.