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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Monday 14 February 2011

Sinister explanation for Newbury tragedy?

The events of Saturday at Newbury are difficult to describe. Not being there, I have only been able to watch the video footage available on the internet, and it looks freakish. I think it was trainer Nicky Henderson who said afterwards that it was like something from a Dick Francis novel. How can it be that only horses were affected when the parade ring was full of people? And only some of the horses at that? Is there a more sinister explanation, the use by a spectator of some sort of stun gun?
I’ve worked in construction for 30 years and I’ve witnessed some incredible events and accidents: crawler cranes flying thru’ the air, scaffold collapses (with multiple fatalities), and a steel-fixer suddenly falling to the ground bleeding profusely from the leg, and later learning when he arrived at hospital that he had a bullet in his leg (I was working on the Chinese/Hong Kong border at the time). I myself escaped almost certain death when a full bag of cement was thrown from a high-rise building under construction and it landed about 3 metres from me. As such, I know that if an accident can happen, it will happen. But, from what I’ve seen, the death of the horses at Newbury is beyond explanation.

The blog remains “down” 4.70pts after the only selection to run on Saturday – CHANCE DU ROY – was 3rd at 5/1 (5th odds a place). I should have stuck with my initial thought of Hey Big Spender as he won at 17/2. He’s recently been campaigned over 3-mile or more and I thought this drop in trip to 2m4½f would not suit but, having reviewed again his form, this is his best trip. He’s now won 4 of his 7 starts between 2m4f and 2m6½f, yet of his 5 starts at 3-mile and further he’s won once and that was a fairly weak race. He’s being aimed at the 3-mile Racing Post Chase, but he would not be my idea of the winner on form.

Finian’s Rainbow won on Saturday, but looked a fortunate winner. His jumping was deliberate at times, and I am more than happy with the couple of antepost wagers I have on GHIZAO at 12/1 and again at 6/1

I advised a 1pt eachway antepost wager on FRENCH OPERA for the QMCC at 50/1 with Corals, as I fully expected him to win the Game Spirit Chase on Saturday, but that race was lost due to the abandonment of racing.

In Ireland, the PJ Moriarty saw the end of Mikael D’Haguenet’s Festival bid this season. Still a novice chaser, he is not the best at his new trade and I think we’ll see him retired for the season to protect his novice status now. Kempes won the Hennessey Gold Cup and put a final nail in the hopes of Joncol. Kempes has now won both times he’s finished at 3-mile (unseated his rider in the Lexus) and looks every inch a top-staying chaser. He must now come into Gold Cup calculations.

No selections today.

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