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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Wednesday, 2 February 2011
There are a couple of meetings today at Leicester and Newcastle but, as I write, Leicester is frost-bound and a 2nd inspection is planned for later this morning.
As such, I am passing over Leicester and looking at Newcastle.
Only one race catches my attention and it’s the 3-mile chase at 3:50. The fav Star Player seems to have got his act together this season and todays trip/going will suit, but odds of 11/4 are not value in what may be a tight race. Its Teescomponents last won here a year ago off OR102, and races off OR110 today. For me, Jeringa is not up to winning this, he’s too much of a plodder. The going will be too soft for Raining Horse. Dark Ben is interesting, but has a big weight to carry and needs to have come on for his seasonal debut. It is the horse Its Teescomponents beat here last Jan that interests me – SAMMY SPIDERMAN. He’s dropped 7lb from OR101 to OR94, whereas Its Teescomponents has gone up 8lb and that means SAMMY SPIDERMAN is 15lb better-off for 2½ lengths. He’s at 9/1 for this! On the face of it, Star Player does have a favourites chance, but if Its Teescomponents is a 4/1 chance, then SAMMY SPIDERMAN should be shorter. His last run was a duff one, but he took a few runs last season to get race-fit. Add the application of 1st-time cheek-pieces and we may see a big improvement in form.
I’m not making a selection today for this as I think the betting should be more like:-
Star Player (the likely winner) @ 4/1,
Its Teescomponents @ 5/1,
Sammy Spiderman @ 11/2,
Dark Ben @ 6/1,
Raining Horse @ 7/1,
Jeringa @ 8/1
with the others at 10/1
Given the form, if I can get 4’s about Star Player then I will have a wager on him.
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