Not much to say about yesterday’s selection ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES. There was clearly plenty of support for the horse as it was put up at 20/1 by a couple of firms at midnight, and by 8:30am it was at 12’s. By the time I posted my blog at 10:50am the odds were down to 8/1, and the SP was just 11/2. The horse led until just before 3-out, whereupon he faded quickly. The only thing that can be drawn from such a performance was that the horse wasn’t race-fit. The going was reported as “good”, but when you look as the race times and the way all the races were run on the chase course with the finishers all well strung-out, it would seem to me the going was “testing” and no better than soft. As such, ABSOLUTE SHAMBLES will be given one more chance to redeem himself.
There are a couple of meetings today at Leicester and Newcastle but, as I write, Leicester is frost-bound and a 2nd inspection is planned for later this morning.
As such, I am passing over Leicester and looking at Newcastle.
Only one race catches my attention and it’s the 3-mile chase at 3:50. The fav Star Player seems to have got his act together this season and todays trip/going will suit, but odds of 11/4 are not value in what may be a tight race. Its Teescomponents last won here a year ago off OR102, and races off OR110 today. For me, Jeringa is not up to winning this, he’s too much of a plodder. The going will be too soft for Raining Horse. Dark Ben is interesting, but has a big weight to carry and needs to have come on for his seasonal debut. It is the horse Its Teescomponents beat here last Jan that interests me – SAMMY SPIDERMAN. He’s dropped 7lb from OR101 to OR94, whereas Its Teescomponents has gone up 8lb and that means SAMMY SPIDERMAN is 15lb better-off for 2½ lengths. He’s at 9/1 for this! On the face of it, Star Player does have a favourites chance, but if Its Teescomponents is a 4/1 chance, then SAMMY SPIDERMAN should be shorter. His last run was a duff one, but he took a few runs last season to get race-fit. Add the application of 1st-time cheek-pieces and we may see a big improvement in form.
I’m not making a selection today for this as I think the betting should be more like:-
Star Player (the likely winner) @ 4/1,
Its Teescomponents @ 5/1,
Sammy Spiderman @ 11/2,
Dark Ben @ 6/1,
Raining Horse @ 7/1,
Jeringa @ 8/1
with the others at 10/1
Given the form, if I can get 4’s about Star Player then I will have a wager on him.
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