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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.


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Friday 4 February 2011

Henry Daly to score with a longshot?

It was a good idea to pass over some of the more obvious “money” horses such as Glebehall Bay and Sir Winston yesterday as neither won, and yet they both were sent off at odds of 11/4 which was far too short to represent their respective chances.

There are 3 meetings today at Bangor, Catterick and Chepstow.

At Bangor, the novice chase at 3:30 may only have 3 runners, but it looks like being a good pointer to the RSA at the Festival next month. A race to watch.
In the 3-mile chase h’cap at 4:05, YOUNGSTOWN has come down 7lb off his peak rating to OR118, despite running well. He looks good to go in this, but my worry is the going at good-to-soft may be too quick for him. Do not overlook AFISTFULOFPEBBLES who tries 3-mile for the first time. He should stay the trip as he’s related to good staying chasers, but his last run was a stinker and he’s on a recovery mission.

There is nothing that takes my interest at Catterick, altho’ in the 3m1f & 110 yards hurdle, only BALLYMACDUFF has winning form over this sort of trip.

At Chepstow, there is an interesting h’cap chase at 4:15 for which RATEABLE VALUE looks a worthy fav. He’s not won a chase yet tho’ and there is scope to oppose him. Henry Daly is having a poor season by his own standards, yet his horses are running well enough without winning. He has MASTER SOMERVILLE in this race, and were he to repeat the form of his 2nd to Edgebriar last March off OR116 then he’d take some beating today. The horse goes best fresh, and has been off since 22nd November. Also, Richard Johnson has the ride and he rides the chase course well at Chepstow. MASTER SOMERVILLE is 18/1 (Chandlers, Hills, both go best odds guaranteed) and he’s worth a speculative eachway wager.

Chepstow 4:15, MASTER SOMERVILLE, ½pt eachway @ 18/1 (Chandlers & Hills)

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Thanks from Wayward Lad


  1. Master Somerville comes in 3rd @ 18/1 (advised) providing a 1.75pt profit.
    The race also provided a winner for the Alert List as PLEIN POUVOIR had his perfect conditions - soft going and a trip under 22-furlongs. A 3/1 winner, that's a welcome 6pts in the bag for the Alert List.

  2. Hi Wayward lad

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