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Between March 2010 and April 2017, this blog recommended wagers on 520 individual races on Jump Racing in the UK, resulting in a PROFIT of £1,525.39 on cumulative stakes of £5,726 - this is equivalent to a Return On Investment of 26.60%.
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Thursday 24 February 2011
Richard Johnson to continue recent good form
There was plenty of news regarding the Festival tho’, especially Champion Hurdle hope PEDDLERS CROSS as his regular rider Jason Maguire received a 7-day ban which will prevent him riding on the opening day of the Festival and so he misses the Champion Hurdle. Rumour is he intends to appeal and have the ban reduced (at least), be I am not hopeful on his success. Who will have the ride on PEDDLERS CROSS? The obvious candidate is Graham Lee who - tho’ not having a winner in a hurdle race at Cheltenham in over 5 years - did ride 3 hurdle winners at the 2005 Festival in Inglis Drever, No Refuge and Arcalis.
There was also some chat on twitter about the QM Champion Chase and MASTER MINDED. It was pointed out by Paul Jones (@sportspunter01) author of the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide, that MASTER MINDED did not appreciate the going last March when he ran a disappointing race in the QMCC behind Big Zeb. I pointed out that the previous time he ran on “quick” going he was also beaten, that was when his faced Voy Por Ustedes in the Melling Chase at Aintree. With reports that grass cover is lusher than it has been in recent years at Cheltenham - due perhaps to the good temperatures and rain of recent weeks – I take that as a good sign that MASTER MINDED will have sufficient “give” underfoot to see him at his best come March 16th.
There are two meetings today over the jumps, but nothing excites me at Ayr, so let’s look straight at Huntingdon. High-class hurdler STARLUCK has his debut chase today and if he goes well then he could jump to the head of the Arkle betting market. It is not out of the question that a novice chaser can go into the Arkle and win off a single run – Well Chief did it a few years back – but he’s got to go out and win this and win it well. I liked the improvements to the Weekender this week – and they are not finished yet. From the new racecard layout, I can see that BACKFROMTHECONGO has won 3 times at this 3-mile trip, and he can also handle the soft going. Add that he went well for Richard Johnson LTO, and Johnson has only 2 rides today, and we have the basis of a wager. He also goes well going right-handed (won at Leicester LTO and has run well at Ludlow). Currently 10/1 with Stan James, yet 11/2 in the RP betting forecast, he looks an eachway wager.
Huntingdon 4:10, BACKFROMTHECONGO, ½pt eachway (Stan James)
Total = 1pt staked
Festival Antepost Review
We’ve looked at:-
The Ryanair Chase on 18th Feb 2011;
The Arkle & The Champion Hurdle on 17th Feb 2011;
The Queen Mother Champion Chase on 21st Feb 2011.
The RSA (Novice) Chase on 23rd Feb 2011
In my opinion, the Gold Cup is too emotive a race to review. Everyone has their particular favourite, and it’s unlikely that anything I write (or anyone else for that matter) will affect how readers of this blog will place their wagers. As such, I will look through the programme for the Festival and see if there is another race that offers some antepost value.
The revised Weekender has already been referred to, but I am always drawn to the column written by Nick Mordin, and he plugs a rating service that I myself have valued for a long time – Racing Post Ratings. It must be 8 years since I first plugged RPR’s as consistent and reliable ratings on a forum run by Oddschecker. I always use them as the first point of reference, and tho I do not always agree with them, they are the backbone of my selection process.
Lastly, a plus for another blog that hit the back of the net yesterday – Sprinterstogo (see adjacent link). Resident writer “The Laird” came up with a 4-horse shortlist that produced a Tricast worth £1,573. If you’d put on a combination tricast of his shortlist to just a 20p stake (24 bets) your total wager would have been £4.80 and you’d have recouped over £314.00 – not bad.
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Thanks from Wayward Lad